WINNIPEG | REUTERS — Nutrien offered a bullish outlook for the 2025 global fertilizer market in an analyst call on Thursday, despite issuing disappointing first-quarter results on Wednesday night.
Strong global demand combined with supply constraints is driving up prices around the world, said Nutrien’s president and CEO, Ken Seitz, who downplayed trade-war impacts.
Weather-related delays in the United States and Australia slowed down fertilizer sales, and higher-than-expected natural gas prices pinched first-quarter earnings, but energy prices have declined and global sales have recovered.
“Things are going strong,” Seitz said.
The Saskatoon, Canada-based firm posted an adjusted profit of 11 cents per share for the quarter ended March 31, compared with analysts’ average estimates of 31 cents, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Nutrien shares fell 2.8 per cent to close at C$76.19 in Toronto on Thursday.
Fundamentals looking great: analyst
Despite the earnings miss, Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein did not find the company’s explanation about weather hurting its fertilizer retail business far-fetched.
“Look at the first half, not the first quarter,” he said, referring to a likely upsurge in fertilizer use by U.S. farmers following a wet early spring. “In my mind the fundamentals are looking great for the fertilizer business.”
Nutrien expects the global potash business to be 71 million-75 million metric tons in 2025, with industry production capacity the limiting factor rather than demand.
Overall fertilizer demand is growing in all markets and spot prices are rising, Seitz said. The increase in U.S. corn acres this year is positive for fertilizer consumption due to that crop’s comparatively high nutrient needs. China and India are also expected to have strong demand.
The present trade battles around the world, involving the U.S., Canada, China and many other countries, have “not impacted the outlook for our business,” Seitz said. Nutrien’s Canadian-made products cross the U.S. border without a tariff and its global supply chain has been navigating other tariff regimes.
Chris Reynolds, Nutrien’s executive vice president and chief commercial officer, said tariffs could affect how fertilizers and chemicals are sourced, but “generally the story is much more about demand.”
Low corn profitability threatens phosphate
Nutrien executives said they see robust U.S. demand for fertilizers in the second half of 2025, but StoneX analyst Josh Linville sees low corn profitability as a threat, especially for phosphate.
“I think there are going to be some struggles,” Linville said.
“I think we’ve got a really, really big danger that we’re going to see demand slower and lower than what is typical.” Farmers might put off fertilizer purchases and application if they face poor returns this fall, Linville said.
Nutrien’s Brazilian operations continue to be reorganized, with good signs in various areas of business, but agricultural chemicals earnings are “still seeing competition from generics and it’s certainly stressing (chemicals) prices,” said Reynolds in the call.
Nutrien is focused on production improvements, small acquisitions, cost-cutting and noncore divestitures to improve financial performance, Seitz and other executives said.
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