The numbers don’t seem to be quite adding up.
Or, if they do, they seem to be running counter to conditions, and earlier expectations.
The numbers in this case are from Statistics Canada, and relate to cropping expectations for Canadian farmers this year.
Overall, the numbers suggest farmers will plant an additional two million acres this season.
Not surprisingly the greatest interest is in canola, and its oilseed competitor soybeans.
The numbers suggest producers will increase canola acres to 22.4 million acres, up almost 10 per cent from last year and a new record high.
Soybeans, a crop unheard of across most of the Canadian Prairies a decade ago is becoming a major crop. The StatsCan numbers show Manitoba soybean acres to 2.2 million acres which is a 34.6 per cent increase from 2016.
In Saskatchewan, where soybeans are an even newer crop, the acreage is expected to triple from 240,000 acres to 730,000.
While the numbers don’t crystal ball the future, given the nitrogen fixing ability of soybeans, and farmers seeking alternatives to canola as an oilseed crop, the acres devoted to soybeans are likely to continue to grow in the years ahead.
Of a greater surprise among the StatsCan numbers are those related to a couple of old standard cereal crops.
Oat acres are anticipated to jump 20.6 per cent to 3.4 million acres. Given the oat milling sector here on the prairies, this will be seen as a positive in terms of supply.
And one-time crop king wheat, is at least expected to hold its acres at 23.2 million.
But the question is where the acres are actually coming from?
We are in a spring where a lot of 2016 crop was still in the field, and that is a pressure on replanting.
There are also significant acres that were wet last fall, and remain so this spring. With the calendar turning to June any amount of moisture could leave at least some of those wet acres idle.
The same moisture issues means a lot of slough acres which might be cropped in dry years, are not going to be planted in 2017.
While Statistics Canada numbers are never guaranteed, planting is too volatile for that, this year farmers clearly hoped to put in huge acres, perhaps as a buffer to softer price expectations.
But conditions are likely to roadblock the big planting that farmers had planned.
In fact, it would not take a lot of moisture in the next couple of weeks to drop the expected acres significantly.
Calvin Daniels is Editor with Yorkton This Week.
