The wet weather of October, and the resulting crop left in the field, certainly was a key element of a presentation at the Sask Grain Expo last week in Yorkton.
Larry Weber of Weber Commodities based in Saskatoon related how he has driven the highway to Yorkton for the past 35-years “and never seen it as wet as today.”
As a result, as of Grain Millers Harvest Showdown, when Weber made his presentation, he estimated near $2 billion worth of crops still in fields in Saskatchewan, and only slightly less in Alberta.
The weather conditions for harvest are impacting yields which had looked to be a bumper crop, said Weber, adding there were expectations of better yields than in 2013.”
While the late harvest will impact on overall final yields, depending on just how much crop may remain in the field, Weber did add some particular field yields have been very good. As an example, he pointed to canola crops in the Regina area at 60-bushels, or more per acre.
Canola prices have been at, or near $11 per bushel, with the chance recently to forward price for May 2017 delivery at $11.75.
Weber said the key for producers is to seek out a price that makes them a dollar.
“Pick a point where you can be profitable,” he said. It’s a case of determining “this is what I need?” and look for that return.
In a year when there is a huge world crop, finding the profitable prices are a key.
And in terms of production the crop is big, with a record crop for all grains at 2,077 MMT, said Weber, who added the record includes records in the individual crops of wheat, corn and soybeans.
But countering the production is increased world demand, noted Weber.
“Nobody wants to talk about record demand,” he said.
The crop left in the field includes a significant amount of canola, said Weber, at the Sask Canola sponsored event, adding there is a huge canola crop.
“The canola crop is bigger than everybody thinks,” he said.
Weber estimated near 20 per cent of canola in the field, but noted in 2009 there was more crop harvested in November than October, but this October more rain has fallen than in ’09.
While the forecast was positive for 10 days, Weber said minue-20 temperatures with no snow might be needed “go get the crop off.”
There is certainly a need for a good canola harvest to meet demands.
“We need almost 20 million tonnes,” said Weber, who noted exports are expected to hit 9.7 MT, and the domestic crush is also strong.
“It (domestic crush) will probably be close to 9 MMT this year.”
Looking ahead to 2017, Weber said conditions are already concerning.
“When you see how wet it is this fall, you have to be worried about next year already,” he said. “It’s going to be difficult to get all the acres in.”
