Someone engaged in a fascinating exercise on election night last week.
Transposed over top the results of Canada’s 42nd electoral map the agricultural land in this country.
With the exception of a few spots of red in Southern Ontario and the very Liberal red of the Maritimes, every riding that was predominately agriculture was painted Conservative blue.
It was particularly striking on the prairies where the blue in Manitoba and Saskatchewan was clearly outlined by the orange of the boreal forest line, as NDP candidates laid claim to the massive northern ridings in both provinces. This included former Conservative MP Rob Clarke’s Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River seat.
But what was even more telling is that when you zoomed in on the online map, the flecks of orange and red manifest into NDP and Liberal seats urban major centres like Edmonton, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Regina and even Calgary.
Yes, even in home of the executive towers of the oil companies, there are now Liberals.
But where tractors roam, you only find Tory blue.
Of course, this will come as absolutely no surprise to anyone in places like rural Saskatchewan.
In Saskatchewan, the overall federal and provincial election results have not always been consistent.
For example, since just prior to the John Diefenbaker years, “conservative” candidates (be they Progressive Conservative, Reform, Canadian Alliance or Conservative) have represented the majority of MPs we’ve sent to Ottawa in 38 of the last 58 years.
With Saskatchewan electing 10 Conservatives out of its 14 seats, you can now project that will be 42 out of 62 years.
However, in the last six decades, we’ve seen the CCF or NDP form government in 34 of those years.
That said, what has been consistency in rural Saskatchewan whether they be provincial or federal ridings, rural folk have elected conservative candidates for a long, long time.
Every provincial riding is represented by a Saskatchewan Party MLA. Their wins four years were decisive — garnering between 50- and 80 per cent of the popular vote.
And last week’s election in Saskatchewan showed the continuation of that trend. That red Liberal wave might have swept the rest of the country, giving Justin Trudeau’s party the majority of seats in all but Alberta and Saskatchewan.
But rural Saskatchewan remained solidly blue:
In Battlefords-Lloydminster, Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz captured nearly two-thirds of the vote, finishing 14,500 votes ahead of both the Liberal and New Democrat.
In Cypress Hills-Grasslands, veteran David Anderson finished 19,000 votes ahead of Liberal Marvin Wiens.
In Souris-Moose Mountain, new Conservative Robert Kitchen had the biggest margin of victory, 21,000 votes ahead of New Democrat Vicky O’Dell.
In Yorkton-Melville, new Conservative MP Cathy Wagantall garnered 60-per-cent of the vote.
In Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek, Kelly Block also doubled the combined vote on her political rivals.
In Moose Jaw-Lake Centre-Lanigan, veteran Tom Lukiwski managed to top his nearest rival by 9,000-plus votes.
And the closest thing to a squeaker in rural Saskatchewan was Randy Hoback’s nearly 9,000-vote win over former NDP MLA Lon Borgerson.
So the question now becomes, how will rural Saskatchewan — and rural Canada, for that matter — fare without government representations.
Well, maybe not as poorly as one suspects.
Trudeau has shown no eagerness to cut programs, suggesting he would run deficits instead. That should make agriculture programs safe, as there seems no compelling reason to vindictive.
Nor has Trudeau expressed any interest in returning the gun register or the Canadian Wheat Board.
And while the Liberals are no less tied to the railways than the Conservatives were, their opposition rhetoric suggests a willingness to get tougher to ensure Western grain gets moved.
What rural Saskatchewan does lose, however, is that closer to government through direct federal representation.
How that plays out is anyone’s guess, but most guess that it won’t be very positive.
Murray Mandryk has been covering provincial politics for over 22 years.
