After eight years in power, there is little doubt that there are growing questions about both the Saskatchewan Party government and the provincial economy it presides over.
This is the reality of politics.
The longer you are in, the more baggage you collect.
And in Premier Brad Wall’s last term, we’ve seen that baggage collect in the form of big and sometimes highly questionable expenditures on the carbon capture and storage at Boundary Dam ($1.5 billion) the Regina by-pass ($1.9 billion) and now the Global Transportation Hub outside Regina where the NDP Opposition, media and others are demanding to know why government paid three and four times the assessed value of land.
This latter issue coming to light a month before an election call is especially problematic for a government that’s had a relatively spotless record when it comes to scandals.
Let us be clear that the GTH land deal is not a scandal yet, but it is now being investigated by Provincial Auditor Judy Ferguson who will surely look at how two political contributors to the Sask. Party managed to clear $6- and $5-million respectively on land that was under expropriation.
Add this is to a weaker economy, deficits and growing debt and you are left with a climate that most any government doesn’t want to see as it goes to the polls.
Well, it seems this would be bad for any government except Premier Brad Wall’s administration.
According to Feb. 11a pre-election poll by Mainstreet Research conducted for Postmedia News, the Sask. Party still nearly has half the voter support.
At the time of telephone survey of 1,477 Saskatchewan residents, 49 per cent said they supported the Sask. Party compared with 28 would vote NDP.
This isn’t quite as overwhelming as the 2011 election results where the Sask. Party garnered 64.3 per cent of the popular vote compared with 32 per cent for the NDP.
Nor is as large as it was in other polls since the last vote where the Sask. Party hovered around the low 60-per-cent or high 50-per-cent range while the NDP hovered around the high 20-per-cent range.
In fact, Mainstreet Research January poll showed the Sask. Party at 51 per cent among the 1,508 respondents surveyed compared with 24 per cent support for the NDP.
Sure, many, many Sask. Party votes are wasted in rural seats where MLAs have won by 50 percentage points.
But the fact of the matter is that the gap between the NDP and Sask. Party in January and February Mainstreet polls has only seen marginal changes. The 27-percentage point difference in January is still a health 21-percentage-point difference now — a mere six weeks before voters go the polls on April 4.
As Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research, put it: “There’s no undertones of desire for change in Saskatchewan, at least not right now.”
Maggi also noted that Sask. Party was still high outside in Saskatoon and Regina at 55 per cent.
This is a remarkable number for a few of reasons.
First, Saskatoon and Regina (where support for the Sask. party is still at 42- and 41-per-cent respectively) are among the fastest growing cities in Canada, so one might think this would be where voters would be most appreciative of the government’s accomplishments.
Second, that 55-per-cent-support number would include Moose Jaw, Prince Albert and the north where NDP support remains solid would offset the Sask. Party numbers.
There is now a 40-year-old history of rural Saskatchewan voting for the right wing alternative — something that will again happen en mass on April 4 and most likely propel Saskatchewan to another majority.
Sure, the NDP may pick up a few extra seats in the cities.
But the Sask. Party is clearly still in the driver’s seat.
Murray Mandryk has been covering provincial politics for over 22 years.
