As of the writing of this last week, Premier Brad Wall’s Saskatchewan Party appeared to about to become a third-time lucky.
Well, it hasn’t been all luck for Wall.
One reason why Wall and company seemed headed for a third-term in Monday’s vote was because their government has managed to keep economic, job and population growth going even after the oil prices started to fall in 2014.
To accomplish this required both governance and political management. Similarly, to maintain the Sask. Party’s rural base — the biggest reason why the NDP really never appeared to be much of a threat to the Sask. Party’s bid for a third-term — has required a lot unnoticed hard work.
That said, there has been a certain degree of luck in being blessed with more natural resource revenue than any other previous Saskatchewan premier.
Clearly, a big reason for a Sask. Party victory would be the fact that the Wall years have been very much associated with good years.
And even in the highly unlikely event of a New Democratic win — highly unlikely because Cam Broten’s team was fighting for survival in some of their urban and northern strongholds — they will be presented with an unlucky dilemma of having to work their way out of a considerably weaker, recovering economy than Saskatchewan has seen in the previous eight years.
So does mean that Brad Wall and Saskatchewan will remain lucky for a third straight term? Well, maybe not as lucky as he might have hoped.
Even before calling the election on March 8th, Wall had already developed the habit of propping up that weakening economy by spend tax dollars on infrastructure — $700 million borrowed from the capital markets in last year’s budget, alone.
This has us headed into another deficit cycle.
Add that $700 million in borrowing to the stated $472-million 2015-16 deficit and we are seeing a $1.1-billion-plus deficit this past year.
Now, add that even though Wall went into this election without yet presenting its 2016-17 budget, it did acknowledge there another deficit in the coming year.
And even more problems may be on the horizon.
According to Progressive Conservative leader Rick Swenson, we could see an added $7.6 billion of public debt (already at $13 billion) because of the Sask. Party’s contractual commitment to public-private partnerships (P3s).
If so, this means we will not see another balanced budget until after the 2020 election, Swenson said in the last week of the campaign.
“It is very difficult for the average taxpayer to sort through and understand these ‘large monthly lease payments’ the government has committed every one of us to pay (because of the P3s),” the PC leader said.
But Swenson argued the $1.9-billion by-pass alone, will, result in monthly lease payments of $167 million.
Also, a lump sum payment of $103 million is due on Oct. 31, 2017 with another such lump sum payment of $507 million due on Oct. 31, 2019.
This does not include the P3 costs for schools and hospitals, but Swenson said his party has calculated the cost to be to an “extra $7.6 billion of debt by 2020.”
That does not include the “unnecessary relocation of the Tower Road junction, service road expropriations overpayments to land speculators and court actions which will pop up by the month from abused land owners,” Swenson said.
This takes us to another issue that might catch up to Wall in the coming term — the fallout from the Global Transportation Hub (GTH) land deal, in which close business associates and friends of Economy Minister Bill Boyd and the Sask. Party made money through the land flips.
All this may make for a less lucky next term.
Murray Mandryk has been covering provincial politics for over 22 years.
