As I write this, there is a chance that I’m going to go 6-for-8 in my first round playoff predictions.
The Lightning and Red Wings don’t play game seven until Wednesday night, so I can’t officially count that towards my tally. I picked the Lightning to win, but said they’d do it in five.
I’ll start with the series’ I got wrong. The St. Louis Blues were ousted by the Minnesota Wild in six games, and in hindsight I probably should have taken into account the Blues lack of playoff success since … well, almost ever. Back when they first joined the NHL they made it to the finals in each of their first three years. They haven’t made it past the second round since 2001, despite high expectations in recent years.
I also continued to doubt Devan Dubnyk, the Wild goalie. While he did have one average and one downright terrible game in the series, he also had a shutout and stopped 68 of 70 shots in games five and six to seal the Blues’ fate.
One day I’ll believe in him. Maybe if he wins another round or continues his stellar play into next season.
The Vancouver Canucks were also eliminated in six games, to their divison rival Calgary Flames. After a tough loss in game one, giving up the game winner with about 30 seconds left, the Canucks played much better in game two and looked to carry momentum into Calgary.
They did quite the opposite, playing horrendously in games three and four to put themselves in a major hole.
After starting the majority of games down the stretch, Eddie Lack was replaced in favour of Ryan Miller in game four, and then watched Miller start games five and six.
The Canucks had a good game five, and looked even better in the early going of game six, jumping out to a 3-0 lead. But as is the Canucks way, they crumbled when they needed to be good and eventually dropped the game 7-4.
I was amazed how many shots the Flames block on a regular basis. They really help their goaltender out by stopping over 20 shots themselves. I figured making the playoffs would be an accomplishment itself for the young team, but they showed they’re not to be underestimated.
That being said, they’re not going to beat the Anaheim Ducks. The Flames used their physical play to wear down the Canucks, and that’s not going to work against Anaheim.
When you go from seeing the Canucks top players, the Sedins and Radim Vrbata, to the Ducks top players like Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry and Ryan Kesler, they’ll go toe-to-toe physically.
Although the Jets did deserve better than a four-game sweep, the fact is they couldn’t hold a third period lead.
I’ll say the Ducks beat the Flames in five games.
The other western conference series has the Chicago Blackhawks hosting the Wild. After a stretch of being downright horrible for 10 years, the Blackhawks have been perennial contenders for the last six seasons, including a pair of Stanley Cups.
After some goalie controversy in the first round against Nashville, the Blackhawks are going back to Corey Crawford. You have to think he’s on a short leash.
The two teams split the season series 2-2, but the Wild won both their games after they acquired Dubnyk, and he stopped 57 of 58 shots in those two games.
There’s no doubt the Blackhawks are a stronger offensive team than the Blues, but the way Dubnyk has been playing you can’t help but wonder if he can do it again.
I’m going to say Chicago in seven, but I’ll accept shame if the Wild pull it off. I might have to buy a Dubnyk jersey if that happens to show repentance.
In the east the Rangers and Capitals will meet for the fifth time in the past seven years. The Rangers have won in each of the past two series’, and I don’t see that changing this year.
As expected, the Rangers easily handled the Penguins in the first round and while I expect Washington to put up a better fight, I think the Rangers come out on top again.
The combination of phenomenal goaltending and offensive prowess gives the Rangers the edge over just about anyone. At times the Capitals had a hard time getting the puck past Jaroslav Halak in their first round series, and things don’t get any easier with Henrik Lundqvist in the Rangers net.
I’m going to say the Rangers will win in six, but wouldn’t surprised to see the Capitals push it to seven like the last two times these teams have met.
The last eastern matchup wasn’t set as press time, but I personally don’t think it matters who wins between the Lightning and Red Wings because the Montreal Canadiens will beat either of them.
Montreal got a little bit of a scare after Ottawa made the switch from Andrew Hammond to Craig Anderson and lost games four and five, but Carey Price showed that all he needs is one goal to win a game with a 43-save performance in game six, a 2-0 win (Montreal scored an empty-net goal with one second left).
Though to be fair to Ottawa fans, they were robbed on a quick whistle that prevented a Senators goal.
The Red Wings have given the Lightning more of a challenge than I thought they would. Petr Mrazek has stepped into the net and given the Lightning fits with his ridiculous saves. He’s already recorded three shutouts against the Lightning this season, two of them in this series.
I’m still sticking with my original prediction of Montreal winning the Stanley Cup.
The next question is does that road go through Detroit, or Tampa?
