Unlike Major League Baseball and the National Football League, finishing last in the NHL standings doesn’t guarantee getting the first overall pick in the draft.
The system has changed in the past few years, now resulting in just a 20 per cent chance to pick first if you finish in last place.
It’s changing even further for the 2016 draft, when the first three picks of the draft will be lottery picks.
And yet there are still people who feel this year’s system is unfair.
Why? Because the 2015 draft features a potential superstar.
I mentioned Connor McDavid briefly in my column about tanking, but I’ll give some more background for anyone who might not know about him.
McDavid was granted “exceptional status” as a 15-year-old in 2012, allowing him to be drafted into the Ontario Hockey League a year early.
He was only the third player in history to be given the honour, following John Tavares of the New York Islanders in 2005, and Aaron Ekblad of the Florida Panthers in 2011.
Another player has been given the honour since, as Sean Day was granted exceptional status in 2012.
As a 15-year-old playing against competition as much as five years older, McDavid scored 66 points in 63 games, winning OHL rookie of the year.
The following season he scored 99 points in 56 games and also represented Canada at the World Juniors, although he was held to just four points in seven games.
Perhaps unsurprising, as he was just the sixth 16-year-old to play for Canada at the world juniors, joining the likes of Wayne Gretzky, Eric Lindros, Jason Spezza, Jay Bouwmeester and Sidney Crosby.
This year he took his game to unparalleled levels.
McDavid played in 47 games during the regular season, scoring 44 goals and 76 assists for a staggering 120 points.
His 2.55 points-per-game pace would have netted him 173 points if he played all 68 games this year.
He missed time due to world juniors and a broken hand, which he sustained in his first, and only, career OHL fight.
At this year’s world juniors he scored 11 points in seven games to help Canada win their first gold medal in six years.
McDavid will be drafted first overall on June 26 at the BB&T Center in Florida, the only mystery is who will be calling his name.
If the NHL were like the MLB and NFL, as of right now the Buffalo Sabres would be drafting him.
But there are 14 different teams who have the opportunity to draft first overall this year.
This year the NHL changed the draft lottery format, giving every team that misses the playoffs a chance at drafting first overall.
In previous years, winning the draft lottery could only move a team up four spots, like when the New Jersey Devils won in 2011 and went from eighth to fourth overall.
The percentage break down for this year is as follows: 30th overall 20 per cent, 29th overall 13.5 per cent, 28th overall 11.5 per cent, 27th overall 9.5 per cent, 26th overall 8.5 per cent, 25th overall 7.5 per cent, 24th overall 6.5 per cent, 23rd overall six per cent, 22nd overall five per cent, 21st overall 3.5 per cent, 20th overall three per cent, 19th overall 2.5 per cent, 18th overall two percent and 17th overall one per cent.
First of all, could you imagine the team with a one per cent chance winning the draft winning?
That is currently the Los Angeles Kings, and an already dangerous Kings team getting a player like McDavid is absolutely terrifying to think about.
If the Sabres finish last, there’s still an 80 per cent chance they won’t get McDavid.
Yet some people seem to feel that’s not high enough, mostly because a lot of people think the Sabres are tanking purposely.
I honestly don’t think they are; I think they’re just a bad hockey team.
I’ve seen some strange suggestions thrown around about how to “fix” the NHL draft lottery system.
Some have suggested that once a team is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, all points accumulated from wins go towards standings for the first overall pick.
Win after being eliminated, get rewarded with the first overall pick.
But how is that fair to teams that are eliminated with five games left, when another team was eliminated with 15 games left?
I’ve seen suggestions of having a tournament with a few of the last place teams, with the victor “winning” the first overall pick.
I am almost certain players on those teams wouldn’t be up for that.
I even saw a reputable hockey writer suggest the NHL do away with a draft completely, allowing 18 year olds to sign wherever they want.
That would be a disaster waiting to happen; so many teams would be left in the dust because kids wouldn’t want to play there.
There is no way to “fix” the NHL draft lottery, because it’s not broken.
The worst team in the league gets rewarded with the best upcoming player, that’s the way professional sports is supposed to work.
If the last place teams didn’t get high draft picks, how would they get better?
And while we’re on the subject on this year’s draft let’s get another thing straight; the draft lottery is not rigged.
No matter who wins the lottery, there are going to be people saying it was rigged.
Buffalo wins; it was rigged because they lost last year. Arizona wins; it was rigged because NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman wants Arizona to be a successful hockey market. Toronto wins; it was rigged because McDavid is from nearby and the NHL wants him to help lead one of the most storied franchsies in history get back on top. Carolina wins; it was rigged because the NHL wants Carolina to create more revenue.
And so on and so forth.
While the lottery may take place behind closed doors, there is a representative from each team present to make sure that kind of thing doesn’t happen.
The lottery balls fall where they may, just like the Lotto 6/49.
So take your tin foil hats off and put your pitchforks away.
By the way, there’s a great website called nhllotterysimulator.com where you can simulate the lottery yourself and see who gets the first pick.
I just hit it once and Arizona won.
One hundred times and Buffalo won 21 of them, followed by Arizona with 15 then Toronto, Carolina and Edmonton with 10 each.
I’m always excited to see who gets the first pick, you hear about the top prospect all year long and finally find out who gets the chance to draft him.
Last year I leapt off the couch when Florida won the lottery instead of Buffalo because I was so shocked and excited.
There were only five teams who could have drafted first last season, this year there are 14.
If a team with a small percentage wins, I might jump through the roof.
