If I were the leader of pretty much any European nation right now that depends on Russia to keep their homes warm, I would be asking my advisors this question:
How quickly can you build a liquefied natural gas regasification plant?
As in, if you pulled out all the stops, took an off-the-shelf design, pulled in every worker necessary - conscripting them if you had to - how quickly could you get it done? Forget about environmental reviews. I want the plans on my desk in the morning, and a strategy to start implementing it at any time.
The day I type this, Ukraine, my family's ancestral homeland, has requested immediate and full membership in NATO. Russian field artillery on Ukrainian soil is showing up in satellite pictures released by NATO. The Ukrainian government is reeling from this invasion.
NATO, of course, will not accept Ukrainian membership, because it would mean we would be immediately going to war. No one wants that. Russia knows this, and is taking advantage of the fact, just as it did earlier this year in seizing the Crimea. It looks like shades of 1938-39 all over again.
Since there's zero ambition to go to war over Ukraine, any threat made by Europe or the rest of the world rings hollow. In this high stakes game of poker, Europe has a pair of deuces and Russia has a royal flush. All Russia has to do is turn off the pipelines, and both Ukraine and Europe freeze in the dark this winter.
It's clear, after Crimea, that Russia will keep going at it until what? What will stop Putin?
If energy exports are his biggest trump card, the one that makes everyone shudder, then Europe must do everything it can to end its reliance on Russian gas and oil, and do it quickly. Take away that leverage, and Putin's hand is tremendously weakened.
Europe must do everything it can, immediately, to wean itself off the Russian pipelines. If I were German Chancellor Angela Merkel, I'd be calling up the Australians and Qataris, asking how much LNG they could send their way. (There's no point in calling up the Canadians right now since we've been dragging our feet on LNG development). If I were the French president, I'd be repealing that moratorium on fracking right fracking now.
In a crisis like this, "drill baby drill" has a whole new meaning.
As of today, precisely half of Canada's 804 drilling rigs are not working. We should be loading at least 100 of them onto roll-on, roll-off carriers for Europe, followed by every idled frac spread and service rig in the country. Immediate exemptions should be made for skilled workers to head to Europe to support these. North America isn't the only continent with shale gas. Apparently Poland has some.
The rest of the fleet should be put to work here, pumping up as much production as we can, as quickly as we can.
Would the Canadian/B.C. governments have the nerve to do away with all the environmental studies and fast track several of the proposed LNG plants and the associated pipelines? It would still take years to build, but that would be quicker than what we have right now. Similarly, Northern Gateway, TransMountain Expansion and Energy East could all be fast tracked.
Most people reading this might think I'm mad, suggesting such a Herculean effort to thwart Putin. The question is, do we want to send young men to Europe in fire retardant coveralls to drill for gas, or do we want to send them in uniforms and combat boots?
We can't fight Russia with guns. But this is something we can do to thwart their ambitions and to help our allies. If Russia starts playing hardball, the rest of Europe is going to be in a real pickle energy-wise.
It could be a cold, dark winter in Europe this year.
- Brian Zinchuk is editor of Pipeline News. He can be reached at [email protected].
