Watching the reaction to the federal government's approval of the Northern Gateway pipeline, one overriding thought came to mind: I would invest in rail cars. Oil tankers, to be specific.
I would also be very worried if I was heavily invested in Enbridge. The reality is the Conservative government is not going to be in place forever, and both Liberal leader Justin Trudeau and NDP leader Thomas Mulcair are promising to kill the project if and when either of them get elected to government.
With years of aboriginal consultations and legal challenges in the way before work actually begins, it is highly unlikely we will see the Conservatives hold onto power long enough for this project to become a fait accompli before a new government kills it.
We have heard this record before. "I will take my pen, and I will write ZERO HELICOPTERS! Chretien!" said Jean Chretien on the hustings. He did just that, to the tune of over a half billion dollars in penalties. More importantly, 20 years later, we still have not replaced the Sea King helicopters.
Similarly, former Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty squandered a billion dollars by cancelling natural gas-fired power plants that were already in the structural steel phase because it might save a few Liberal seats in an upcoming election.
These clear messages by Mulcair, Trudeau, McGuinty and Chretien will do more to scare away investors than any earthmuffin chained to a bulldozer. They are telling the world that a done deal in Canada can no longer be considered a done deal. Perhaps you should spend your money elsewhere.
It's rare that I see something so profound in someone else's opinion piece that it jumps out and slaps me in the face with its clarity. Yet that is exactly how I felt in reading Claudia Catteneo's piece in the Financial Post June 17. In an article entitled "Northern Gateway approval from Ottawa now means British Columbia must get onboard," she hit it out of the park.
She wrote, "British Columbians, too, need to accept the judgment of Canada's institutions and trust Canada's energy sector to deliver on its commitments.
"Anything less presents a risk to the province that is more immediate than any risk to the environment of an oil pipeline or tanker rupture - a reputation for B.C. as a rogue jurisdiction where the economy is held hostage by environmentalists and aboriginals who oppose lots and offer little."
That last statement is what hit home - "held hostage by environmentalists and aboriginals who oppose lots and offer little."
That is precisely what is taking place here.
I just attended the Williston Basin Petroleum Conference in Bismarck, N.D. in May. One of the most profound presentations I heard there was by Fox News host Sean Hannity. He explained that North Dakota's oil boom could be replicated throughout the nation. There's oil in 48 states. All of the country's woes - debt, deficit, unemployment, security - they all could be addressed in a few short years if people would just get out of the way and let it happen.
I have no patience for people who want to live off the welfare state and oppose everything yet offer little to fund it. Mulcair and Trudeau want to promise the moon, but shut down the very engine of Canada's economy, the oilsands. Its development and expansion, and the spin off effects that come with it, is what is going to pay for all those wonderful things like hospitals and schools. They will pay for the helicopters Chretien cancelled. They are a bounty and a blessing the rest of world can only dream of.
But with our potential governments in waiting so steadfast against pipelines, we will squander our opportunities. They oppose much, but offer little, just like the protesters.
The oil will still be produced, but if no pipelines are built, it's going to have to go by rail. Invest in rail cars.
- Brian Zinchuk is editor of Pipeline News. He can be reached at [email protected].
