Welcome to the 2018 edition of my annual summer box office preview column. Or, more accurately, what passes as a summer box office preview, because it really all went to heck this year.
This Friday marks the traditional start of summer blockbuster season. But things have been thrown for a loop this year, given what has already happened with Avengers: Infinity War.
In my previous column, I noted Avengers: Infinity War was originally slated for the first week of May, which is traditionally considered the kickoff of summer blockbuster season in the movie business. But Disney moved up the wide release a week to April 27, to coincide with other markets around the world.
So, as I have said before, I have no idea whether to count Avengers: Infinity War as a “summer” release, given that it is in reality a late spring release. I do not know whether this means we should consider the final week of April as part of “summer season” from now on. Of course, this is “movie” summer we are talking about, not the “real” summer, which does not begin until June 21.
In fact, by the time “real” summer arrives, this latest Avengers flick will have been in the cinemas for weeks. Most people will have already seen it, and will want to see something else by then.
Anyway, it goes to show that “summer blockbuster season” is a bit of a joke this year. Already, writers are projecting this Avengers movie to be the “summer” box office champion, when in reality it is an April release that will have made most of its money before the actual summer even starts. I still can’t wrap my head around this.
In any event, Avengers: Infinity War has now already opened in North America. Right before it opened last Friday, I made sure to post online my prediction of how I thought it would do at the box office: $655 million domestic.
So much for that prediction. The numbers for the weekend have just been announced and it has opened to a whopping $257.6 million, which is the new all-time opening weekend record in North America. It toppled the record held by Star Wars: The Force Awakens by about $10 million.
It also set the Saturday record, taking in $83 million on April 28, and its haul of $69.2 million on April 29 set the Sunday record as well.
These figures are just for one day in the North American market. By way of contrast, the acclaimed and Oscar-winning The Hurt Locker made a grand total of $49.2 million during its entire run worldwide.
The bottom line is, my prediction that this Avengers movie would make $655 million is already shot to heck. I now think this movie is far more likely to make it to $800 million. This is absolutely unheard of for a late-spring release, which is what this is. A box office of $800 million would ultimately put Avengers: Infinity War second all-time to Star Wars: The Force Awakens in the domestic market.
When also counting the global market, Avengers: Infinity War opened to $640.9 million, scoring the biggest opening ever in places like Mexico, Brazil, South Korea and the Philippines.
What’s even more remarkable about these international numbers is this movie isn’t even open in the massive China market yet. The release date there is May 11.
My point here is that I don’t know why I bother to make a prediction about the summer box office now. This race is already over, and summer blockbuster season has not even started.
Already, the decision to release this movie a week early looks brilliant. There is literally no major competition until Deadpool 2, starring Ryan Reynolds, shows up May 18.
Solo: A Star Wars Story is set to debut May 25 and should also do terrific numbers, although I do not think it will achieve the type of numbers we have seen from the recent December releases in the Star Wars franchise.
The big releases in June will no doubt be Incredibles 2 on June 15 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom which goes wide June 22. Both PIXAR and the Jurassic franchise are known for dominating the box office, so I am expecting big things.
As for July, that month will be loaded, with Ant-Man and the Wasp opening wide July 6, Skyscraper starring Dwayne Johnson July 13 and Mission: Impossible -Fallout starring Tom Cruise July 27. These are the movies that stand out for me, looking at the calendar.
Without really trying to over-think things this time around, here are my predictions for how these will do:
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $355 million
Deadpool 2 $345 million
Solo: A Star Wars Story $330 million
Incredibles 2 $325 million
Ant-Man and the Wasp $265 million
Mission: Impossible - Fallout $230 million
Skyscraper $205 million
I’ve also heard people predicting big things for Ocean’s 8 — part of the Ocean’s franchise but this time with an all-female cast including Sandra Bullock, Cate Blanchett, Anne Hathaway and other famous actresses. It opens in wide release June 8.
I’m sure the notion of seeing an Ocean’s movie with an all-female cast will appeal to some people (ie. females). But everyone knows this is not only a gimmick, and a tired gimmick by Hollywood.
This has been done before, taking some played-out old franchise that had a male cast and bringing it back from the crypt with an all-female cast, in one last attempt at extracting money from the public. This same stunt was pulled with Ghostbusters a couple of years ago, and audiences saw right through it.
If they want to make a movie with an all-female cast, that’s great, but make it original. That’s all we ask.
Here, unless the script is really good and this movie gets a high ranking on Rotten Tomatoes, I just don’t see Ocean’s 8 cleaning up to the same extent. My guess is it makes around $115 million or so domestic, which would be in the same ballpark as the previous two Ocean movies.
Most of the movies I have mentioned are due to show up at the Capitol in North Battleford at some point over the coming weeks and months. Check their website www.rainbowcinemas.ca for more information on what to expect.
That wraps up my predictions for the summer box office for 2018. By the end of August, maybe I’ll have a better idea about whether Avengers: Infinity War is a summer movie or not.
