If you build it, they will come. Or will they? And who is they?
It is really nice to see development in Yorkton continuing apace, despite the downturn in the economy.
The old Sears building on Broadway Street is pretty much ready for occupancy. Renovation of the old casino/Co-op on Third Avenue is in full gear. A new gas station/convenience store is going in at the Parkland Mall.
According to Save on Foods, they are still on board to open a store in Yorkton next year.
The City is also engaged in its largest construction year on record with major street and underground infrastructure replacement on Dracup and Mayhew Avenues.
And, let us not forget, the City has the entire Roundhouse Subdivision (adjacent to Hwy 9 behind Yorkton Tourism) available for development plus pieces of the Yellowhead Subdivision (near Walmart) and a few lots left in the Gladstone Industrial Park (Ball Road).
In all, the City has some 23 acres of fully-serviced commercial land and 10 acres of fully-serviced industrial land for sale or lease on top of the private real estate, which, in addition to the aforementioned renovations also includes some prime downtown locations such as the former ANAVETS club house.
All of this is in stark contrast with provincial economic prospects. We saw in June how drastically the downturn in oil and potash has impacted the Saskatchewan government with a budget that required about a billion dollars of new debt just to keep the cuts from resembling Greek-style austerity.
Other negative signs include the most recent round of layoffs by Potash Corp, which seemingly came out of the blue.
While experts, such as RBC as just one example, are optimistically forecasting short-term growth, it is modest and based on a rebound in oil and potash prices, which are by no means guaranteed.
“We have revised downward our GDP growth forecast significantly in Saskatchewan this year from the 1.2 per cent increase projected in the March issue of Provincial Outlook,” RBC’s most recent report (June) stated.
In short, they are now projecting a 0.2 per cent decline in GDP for 2016 and 1.8 per cent increase in 2017, which hovers around the same level with inflation, so growth that is more likely, in fact, akin to stagnation.
That being said, Yorkton still has a lot going for it. We have a slightly more diversified economy than some of the other small oil boom cities with a strong agribusiness base, food being one of the only growth industries left in rural Saskatchewan.
We are also still the heart of a regional trading area that does nearly $600 million worth of retail business annually serving a population of 150,000 in a 150-kilometre radius, according the City.
The regional hub thing also increasingly applies to health care and education as those kinds of services become more and more centralized with urbanization and an aging population.
It is encouraging to see developers continuing to have confidence in Yorkton, particularly in these uncertain times. Perhaps, that confidence itself will feed continued growth.
Of course, we could also end up with a lot of brand-new, really beautiful, prime, but empty, commercial space. It is more than a bit concerning that two years after the Roundhouse Subdivision was ready for development, there has yet to be a shovel in the ground or even any good prospects.
Nevertheless, perhaps there is something to be said for investing when times are good. At least when the next boom comes, it looks like we will be ready for it.
