To the Editor:
The Harper government failed to produce a budget through the entire 2014-15 fiscal year. Do you remember why?
They claimed they were uncertain about unstable energy markets and had to delay their budget long enough to get reliable data. So how has that worked out?
Finally tabled on April 21st, the 2015 federal budget assumed overall economic growth for Canada this year at 2 per cent. That much growth, the Conservatives said, would generate sufficient revenue for the federal books to be balanced and for Mr. Harper to proceed with the two expensive tax breaks that he had promised for high-wealth households.
Those discriminatory tax breaks have now been legislated. But the economic growth assumptions used to justify them have gone up in smoke. The Canadian economy will NOT grow by 2 per cent this year.
In fact, in the first quarter of 2015, our economy not only stalled, it actually shrank in each of January, February and March. For the second quarter, we’ll get the official figures in a few weeks, but more bad news is expected. The economy may not be shrinking any more, but it’s not growing much either.
The last half of 2015 may be better, but according to all the major bank economists and the Organization of Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD), Canada will be lucky to eke out an annual growth rate of about 1.5 per cent.
That mediocre performance is well below what the Conservatives were claiming at Budget time, barely two months ago. It’s well below what they need to balance the federal books. And it’s therefore well below what’s needed to justify Mr. Harper’s tax breaks.
Paltry economic growth is not just this year’s problem. It has been a defining feature of Stephen Harper’s government. Since he came to power in 2006, Mr. Harper has the worst economic growth record of any Prime Minister since R.B. Bennett in the 1930’s.
But don’t blame me, he will say, it’s all the fault of that nasty 2008 recession. But that recession was shallower than expected. It lasted less than a year. And it ended six long years ago. So why is Canada still languishing?
Well, Mr. Harper says, put things in context - aren’t we doing better than every other country in the G-7? The short answer is no, we’re not. Canada hasn’t been on top of the G-7 in jobs and growth for several years now. Among the 34 leading countries tracked by the OECD, it’s projected that 24 will grow faster this year than will Canada. And in the larger group of IMF countries, more than 130 are likely to do better.
It’s time to stop the excuses. Mr. Harper has been in charge for nearly 10 years. No one else is to blame. His economic plan has failed.
Instead of an obsession with tax breaks for the wealthy, the Government of Canada needs to be riveted on the drivers of sustained and sustainable economic growth. That’s what will lift our living standards and bolster a more prosperous middle class.
That’s what will help boost all those who are working so hard just to get to the middle class. And that’s what will enable the federal books to be balanced on a sound and sustainable foundation.
For all these reasons, Justin Trudeau is proposing a new economic plan for Canada. It’s rooted in fiscal responsibility with two prime goals — greater growth and fairness.
It includes a more generous, non-taxable and fully indexed Canada Child Benefit. A 7 per cent middle class tax cut.
A major boost for public infrastructure. Better access to higher learning and skills. Investments in science and innovation. More effective trade and marketing. And the restoration of Canada’s environmental credibility.
Mr. Trudeau’s plan represents real change. Stay tuned. There’s more to come.
Ralph Goodale
Member of Parliament Wascana
