There is not a lot of good news for Yorkton or Saskatchewan in the latest crime numbers released by Statistics Canada yesterday.
In 2015, Yorkton’s crime severity index (CSI) was 131.46, up 16.76 per cent over 2014. The CSI is a measure that takes into account the relative seriousness of police-reported crime. Each Criminal Code offence is weighted based on actual sentencing practices to give a better relative picture of the safety of communities than the old crime rate, which made no distinction between minor charges such as breaches of conditions and serious crimes such as assault.
Statistics, of course, can be tricky. They can be unscrupulously manipulated to say virtually anything you want them to and to draw erroneous or dubious conclusions for political reasons. For example, depending on your political bent, a rise in crime severity could be used to argue governments aren’t doing enough to alleviate poverty or that the courts are too lax in sentencing. Corroborating evidence and in-depth analysis are required for statistics to contribute to meaningful policy.
But while figuring out why the numbers are what they are is exceptionally complex, statistics do give us a very good sense of trends and trends are much more important than any single year’s numbers.
The first important comparison to note here is that last year’s Yorkton numbers break a four-year downward trend that saw decreases of 5.26, 14.88, 11.59 and 17.41 per cent. However, our 2015 CSI of 131.46, while up 18.87 points over 2014, is still better than it was in 2013 (136.33), 2012 (154.20) and 2011 (181.15).
Compared to 305 other jurisdictions with populations greater than 10,000, Yorkton ranked 30th nationally, up four places from 2014, but still better than 2013 (20th), 2012 (ninth) and 2011 (seventh).
More concerning, we also took a significant jump in violent crime severity ranking from 58th in 2014 to 21st last year. The one positive note is Yorkton was 30th in non-violent crime severity in 2015 compared to 28th in 2014, although two places may well be within the margin of error.
Also of interest here, is that 2015 marks the first time since 2003 that the national CSI increased. The increase of five per cent is far shy of Yorkton’s and we are still nearly double the national average, which came in at 69.7.
The index was also up 10 per cent provincially and Saskatchewan continues to lead the other provinces at 135.8.
According to StatCan, the national increase was driven by a jump in fraud, breaking and entering, robbery and homicide, particularly in Alberta, but also Saskatchewan. That is consistent with economic woes experienced by us and our neighbouring province of late, although a direct causal link cannot be definitively made.
Of Canada’s 33 Census Metropolitan Areas (or CMAs, cities with more than 100,000 population) Calgary logged the greatest increase in CSI at 29 per cent. However, Alberta’s capital, with a CSI of 78.3, still lags way behind Saskatchewan’s two largest cities. Saskatoon, in fact, ranked last year as Canada’s most dangerous CMA with an index of 112.5. Regina (107.6) was number two.
The country’s small cities continue to outrank their larger counterparts. While first among CMAs, Saskatoon is only 35th overall with North Battleford remaining Canada’s crime capital for the seventh year in a row and most violent city again in 2015 after dropping into second place behind William’s Lake, BC in 2014.
All of this is to say that 2015 was not a good year for crime locally, provincially or nationally compared to last year. But while that should give us pause and obviously we still have much work to do, the good news is we are a much safer nation than we were 25 years ago.
While reporting measures and definitions have changed over time making historical comparisons imperfect, all indications are both overall and violent crime peaked in Canada in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Since 1991, however, there has been a definite downward trend with only a couple of outlier years, the last of which was 2003.
Whether 2015 is an outlier or the beginning of a new disturbing upward trend in crime remains to be seen. Either way, we can only take care of our own small piece of the world.
At the local level, every one of us should all be looking for ways we can contribute to crime reduction. There are many opportunities available including volunteering to work with youth, becoming involved in Citizens on Patrol or neighbourhood watches, working with the HUB program, or even just taking care of our own families’ business.
