The federal election has barely ended and we have already set upon the path for a provincial one. Campaign calls are already going out – one hit my house last week, in fact, the Saskatchewan Party being the guilty one in this case – and there already attack ads coming from both provincial parties and their friends. While it might be nice if we could hold off until at least March, it looks like that’s not going to happen.
The Saskatchewan Party, for their part, have gone green and embraced recycling in their campaign already, dragging out ads that proclaim we do not want to go back to the same old NDP. This is a familiar campaign, right down to the graphics, and it’s important to note that they are not strictly accurate anymore. The same old NDP has been largely dismantled, something two successful election campaigns can take credit for, but it’s beginning to feel as though the party is stuck somewhere in 2011, fighting an election they’ve already won.
It makes some sense that they want to throw back to that election, it’s the most successful one they had ever run, and they cut the number of opposition MLAs to a mere nine. It also seems as though they want to create a negative association with a party which is significantly different from the old guard which they defeated. It could be effectively argued that the NDP is different now, and two of its most vocal members – specifically, leader Cam Broten, as well as the always present Trent Wotherspoon – are also part of the party’s younger generation. They are not the same old NDP by definition, because they’re neither the same nor old.
The problem with using the “bad old days” as a campaign crutch is that you’re going after people who are already your supporters, the people who will respond strongly to a campaign decrying the previous government are the people who already voted for you last time. New voters, however, do not have the same associations. Younger voters are going to be the ones most open to the NDP, as young voters tend to be more left wing in general. People new to the province, and there are many, might be open to the Saskatchewan Party’s platform but they’re not going to have the “bad old days” resonate, for they were not here. They are going to be much more interested in ensuring that the move back to the province is one that remains worthwhile, and as a result are going to be more focused on plans for the future, rather than fear of a past they didn’t even witness.
After two terms in office, the campaign has to shift from whatever happened nearly a decade ago to your actual plans for the present and leading into the future. Instead, going for a campaign focused on the past leaves the door open for the NDP, especially if there is a current day weakness. Let’s say oil revenues take a large hit, because that has happened, you now have a situation where instability is introduced and an opposition party can capitalize on it. If you’re not focused on the present day, that allows someone else to fill that gap.
The NDP has started down that road, but largely seems focused on Premier Brad Wall himself. That’s an interesting tactic, seemingly inspired by the federal campaigns which focused on Stephen Harper as much as the Conservative Party itself. It might not be a good policy, however, because Wall isn’t generally the weakness of the Saskatchewan Party. He has been drifting right lately, seemingly trying court voters who went Conservative federally, something that could cause the more moderate voters to turn on him, but that might not be enough to get an entire province to change direction. While federally you could run a campaign on personality, especially since Harper was a famously difficult one, provincially you have to make it about policy, a personality battle isn’t effective, especially since you’re going after one who is genuinely popular rather than one who is begrudgingly tolerated. There are plenty of things the NDP could focus on in the upcoming campaign, and I’ll bet money on seeing campaigns from the party discussing supporter-galvanizing issues like privatization, but they’ll do well to move away from a battle of personalities, which hasn’t worked provincially for two elections.
Even after spilling all that ink, it’s doubtful that this election will lead to anything all that new, not unless something changes dramatically in the next few months. So maybe it doesn’t matter what the ad campaigns are, they could run photos of amusing cats and it’ll have as much impact on the eventual election results.
But then, if that is the case, why waste party dollars on ads that nobody is going to care about, and will largely be forgotten by next April? Why phone me, trying to drum up support even though I’m deliberately obtuse and won’t be particularly helpful? Put away the ad campaigns, save your money and wait until spring.
