The weird feud between Alberta Premier Rachel Notley and noted television blowhard Kevin O’Leary is initially quite baffling. His offer of a million dollars for the Alberta oil industry if Notley resigns makes it appear as though he has a fundamental misunderstanding of how the oil industry works. Notley, of course, cannot control the price of oil, it’s largely determined by the much larger international market, and Notley would have a vested interest in keeping it high, whatever her political stripe. As well, a million dollars is a large sounding number, but it’s honestly not that much money in an industry where billions is invested every year. On the face of it, the entire thing is a really stupid statement made by someone who should arguably know better.
Except, of course, it isn’t.
What we are seeing is the start of the Conservative leadership race, and the opening play of a Trump-esque attempt to gain the leadership of the federal Conservative party. O’Leary is taking the role of the loud, shouting leadership candidate who is not “politically correct,” which seems to be code for willing to say things that make them look stupid. Instead of playing to angry racists, as Trump is doing south of the border, O’Leary has decided to start by playing to unemployed oil industry workers. He’s giving them a boogeyman in Notley, a solution in himself, and hoping that their despair over the state of their industry will allow him to ride into the top chair. He has already admitted to being somewhat inspired by Trump, and this is a Trump-esque stunt to get people paying attention to him.
O’Leary knows that Notley isn’t going to resign because a shouting famous man is promising a relatively small amount of investment, so his money is going to be safe. He is banking on the people he wants supporting him don’t actually know much about money or the industry they work in. A million dollars sounds big, and if it was put directly into one of our bank accounts we would be very happy. But when it comes to the oil industry, you’re looking at hundreds of millions to do anything at all, into the billions if we’re talking about the amount of actual investment that would actually make a meaningful difference. A million dollars can’t fix a road in Yorkton, how is it supposed to save the oil industry of Alberta?
It’s always scary when a politician, or potential politician in this case, banks on their supporters being unable to understand the world around them. It gives the impression that, in power, they would try to sneak in dangerous changes as the rubes wouldn’t be able to grasp what they’re trying to accomplish. The statement by O’Leary shows a dangerous lack of respect for voters and their basic intelligence. He made a loud, controversial and ultimately meaningless statement, but he’s hoping that enough people don’t look very closely at the substance of his offer, so he can look like the hero of the working class rather than someone who is essentially exploiting them for votes.
Whether or not you agree with the Conservative party as a whole, you have to hope that the person who eventually assumes leadership is someone who voters can respect, and respects voters in turn. A basic amount of respect for the people charged with putting them in charge is required for a leader to stay in charge and keep people from turning on them. When someone seems arrogant they start to draw the suspicion of voters, when someone actually is arrogant they start to do things which run counter to their mandate to the detriment of the country. O’Leary, meanwhile, is beginning his campaign with a flourish of arrogance with a side of disdain for the population of the province he is professing to care about. The amount of money he’s offering for an upheaval of Alberta’s government is insultingly low if you give it any thought, and he’s banking on people not giving it any thought at all.
We do at least have a glimpse of the focus of this Conservative leadership campaign. Alberta is going to be a battleground, it’s a stalwart Conservative province with a premier who is an easy boogeyman for their base of supporters. Uniting against Notley is going to be a rallying cry for the party in the province, because having someone they don’t like is a way to get supporters politically active and ready to support their candidate of choice. Contented people are much less likely to vote than people who are dissatisfied with the political situation that surrounds them.
I hope that, unlike our neighbours south of the border, we roundly reject the loud, obnoxious, television personality who talks down to the population and instead see leadership campaigns involving candidates who have at least a degree of respect for the people they hope will support them.
Whether I agree with a political party or not, I merely hope their leader is someone who I can respect in turn.
