It feels like I have written this before.
That, I suppose, is because in terms of agriculture there are often ongoing storylines to follow, and the latest among those is Donald Trump.
It was in Yorkton in March last year that John Gormley, long-time radio talk show host, and former Member of Parliament, spoke about the then still newly minted president.
“The man takes unorthodox to levels most of us can’t understand… He turns every single assumption on its head. From beginning to end it will be a presidency without precedent. There is no playbook for him, no template for this,” he said.
John DePutter, founder and President of DePutter Publishing Ltd., speaking at a Farm Credit Canada Ag Knowledge Exchange event held in Yorkton last February also suggested Trump could cause marketing waves.
In crystal balling the commodity prices at the time DePutter said there were unknown influences, one being American president Donald Trump.
“We’re talking about a loose cannon, a wild card,” he said.
DePutter said he has always termed unexpected shocks in terms of price ‘black swans’ adding Trump qualifies as one of those.
While noting he is generally on side with Republican ideals, DePutter said he is not sure Trump was a good choice as leader, He pointed to a general trend away from the concept of free trade.
“There’s an anti-globalization trend going on too, which is sad. Agriculture needs exports,” he said. “The US and Canada both benefit from an open grain trade.”
Jump to March 2018, and we see the concerns broached by Gormley and DePutter are most certainly taking place.
A revised Trans-Pacific Partnership, renamed Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, has been hammered out and agreed to by Canada and its partners with one exception, the United States. The new CPTPP doesn’t fit with the vision of protectionist president Trump.
The North American Free Trade Deal is being renegotiated because of Trump, although whether the United States is sincere in wanting a new deal is rather unclear. It seems increasingly that Trump will make sure the deal is never achieved opening the door to the US making unilateral trade decisions that the president believes will only favour his country. The idea of fairness is far from Trump’s way of thinking.
Evidence of his increasingly protectionist thinking Trump signed an order March 8 to impose tariffs of 25 percent on imported steel and 10 percent on imported aluminum.
Trump did exempt Canada and Mexico from the tariffs, although the U.S. government has dropped hints the exception is only temporary, linking Canada’s fate on tariffs to the outcome of the NAFTA negotiations. In other words the exemption to the huge tariffs is being presented as the carrot to get Canada and Mexico to sign the new NAFTA deal without making waves, making Trump and his party look better ahead of 2018 congressional elections.
The Trump factor is certainly a chill wind in terms of trade, and is likely to gather force as the president tries to mold the US in his image of what is good for America.
Calvin Daniels is Editor with Yorkton This Week.
