Mayor skeptical of census population count

A lower-than-expected population count for Yorkton in the 2011 Census of Canada is going to cost local taxpayers money.

The first round of data from the May 2011 Census was released on February 8, showing Yorkton's population at 15,669: up just 631 (4.2 percent) from the 2006 figure of 15,038.

That number is nearly 3,000 short of the total of 18,471 given by the Ministry of Health's Covered Population Report released earlier this year. According to the ministry's count, Yorkton grew by nearly 1,500 people in the same 2006-2011 period.

If the ministry figure is closer to the truth, it means that Yorkton is missing out on significant funding dollars from the province.

Yorkton's Mayor James Wilson says he is "frustrated" by the discrepancy.

"When you look at the Sask Health numbers compared to the 2011 Census numbers, it's very obvious the census numbers are skewed. As an example, we have 420-plus new homes in the city since that time period, and yet we're only up 631 people? And consider that statistically, we have an average two to three people per household at a minimum. So something's wrong, obviously."

The Ministry of Health insists that the Covered Population Report-a tally of residents registered for healthcare services in Saskatchewan-is not intended to be used as a comprehensive census, but Wilson has argued in the past that it gives a more accurate population picture than the official census.

While the Covered Population Report includes all Saskatchewan residents registered for healthcare, the census only accounts for those who receive the form in the mail and take the time to return it.

The resulting "undercount" is a known phenomenon at Statistics Canada, which plans to factor the issue into revised population estimates in 2013. The adjusted estimates are unlikely to differ by more than a few percentage points, however.

And while the census is technically mandatory, it is difficult to guarantee that everyone filling it out provides accurate and honest information.

These issues are of serious concern to
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municipal governments because the province's revenue sharing formula is directly based on the population numbers given by the Census of Canada.

As Yorkton's annual budget is already passed and the census numbers are lower than expected, Wilson says that the report will result in an "immediate" budget shortfall of more than $100,000 for the city.

Based on a distribution from the province of $187.11 per capita, a calculation using the Ministry of Health figure instead of the Statistics Canada figure would mean an extra $2.6 million for Yorkton over the next five years.

"The reality is, that impacts the ratepayers' pocketbook," says the mayor.

Wilson says he is initiating conversations among city mayors about pushing for a change to the census process in Saskatchewan.

"We are not allowed to hold our own census as a city-it is done by Statistics Canada. [Whereas] in other provinces, each city can hold their own census and be paid accordingly for revenue sharing based on that census."

Good news for province

While Yorkton's numbers were below expectations, the 2011 Census shows a positive growth trend across almost all of Saskatchewan. The province as a whole grew by 65,244 people (6.7 percent) since the 2006 Census, placing it behind only Alberta and British Columbia for growth.

In the local region, Melville's population was recorded at 4,517 (up from 4,149 in 2006), Canora at 2,219 (from 2,013), Kamsack at 1,825 (from 1,713), and Esterhazy at 2,472 (from 2,336).