Skip to content
  1. Home
  2. Central
  3. Local News

Data showing huge increase in Canora’s population is too good to be tru

When news of a community’s population growth seems too good to be true, the result is a lack of credibility affecting the source, virtually rendering all the data useless beyond it’s very limited initial purpose.
SaskToday

            When news of a community’s population growth seems too good to be true, the result is a lack of credibility affecting the source, virtually rendering all the data useless beyond it’s very limited initial purpose.

            Such is the case in Canora with the recently-released covered population report issued through Saskatchewan Health. Rather than being greeted with enthusiastic optimism, the data showing a 19 per cent increase in the town’s population, is being treated like an obvious error.

Annually, town council members have argued that the covered population data (residents issued Saskatchewan health services cards) was more accurate than the federal census data, said Michael Mykytyshyn, Canora’s chief administration officer. The covered population data usually shows Canora’s population at 400 to 500 more that the 2011 federal census which pegged Canora’s population at 2,219.

When the recently-released 2,015 covered population report was released, Canora’s population was shown as 3,262, an increase of 520 from the previous year. That is the highest population number ever attributed to Canora in the annual covered population reports. The previous high was in 1979 when Canora’s population was slightly under the 3,000 mark.

Last week, Mayor Gina Rakochy said the topic was to be discussed at the April 5 meeting, but at first glance it appears to be a mistake.

While the town’s population showed the 19 per cent increase, the four surrounding rural municipalities showed drastic decreases. According to the report for 2015, the town’s and the RM populations for 2015, followed by the 2014 and 2013 numbers in parenthesis, is as follows: Canora, 3,262 (2,742) (2,834); RM of Buchanan, 101 (162) (147)); RM of Keys, 88 (141) (126); RM of Sliding Hills, 349 (547) (524); and RM of Good Lake, 205 (466) and (424).

What would have created such great variation was a question posed to the Ministry of Health from this newspaper early last week. In an email response, Brian Wood of the ministry’s communication branch said a “media staff representative” would follow up on the matter but as of Sunday, no further communication was received.

In an explanation of the covered population report’s methodology, it is explained that “The 2015 Covered Population was run using the Personal Health Registration System (PHRS) as the data source. The design of the PHRS provides flexibility to collect information on multiple addresses and to distinguish between residence and correspondence addresses. The residence code carried on the PHRS is assigned based on the following hierarchy: land location, residence, and correspondence address.

“Some of the residence address information on PHRS was out of date and inaccurate. Only confirmed residence address rescodes were retained in the PHRS conversion.”

That may have resulted in many more residents of surrounding RMs being identified with Canora because that is their mailing address, said Mykytyshyn. However, one would expect that the same shift in population numbers would have been observed for other towns in the area, such as Kamsack, Preeceville and Norquay, but that was not the case – so the mystery continues.

According to the Ministry of Health, the covered population report is based on eligibility for health insurance benefits. All residents of Saskatchewan are included except: members of the Canadian Forces and inmates of federal prisons, all of whom are covered by the federal government; and people not yet meeting the residency requirement (coverage begins on the first day of the third calendar month following the move to Saskatchewan). Saskatchewan residents moving elsewhere remain eligible for coverage for the same period, and anyone whose coverage extends through June (i.e. who left the province April 1or later) is included in the report. In the case of death, people who had coverage any time in June are included.

Population data

For a snapshot of the 2015 data (compared with covered population data from 2014 and 2013 in parenthesis), increases and decreases for all municipalities in the Sunrise Health Region area north of Yorkton were recorded.

Towns and villages showing increases were: Canora, 3,262 (2,742) (2,834); Norquay, 8,28 (818) (815); Theodore, 522 (503) (534); Invermay, 403 (377) (411); Calder, 212 (209) (213); Rhein, 280 (272) (275); and Ebenezer, 234 (225) (217).

Towns and villages showing decreases were: Kamsack, 2,340 (2,359) (2,342); Preeceville, 1,470 (1,509) (1,504); Togo, 167 (176) (175); Sturgis, 817 (837) (862); Pelly, 406 (431) (443); Rama, 151 (166) (168); Endeavour, 238 (249) (283); Arran, 101 (118) (121); Hyas, 251 (255) (261); Buchanan, 314 (322) (336); Wroxton, 121 (133) (138); Springside, 680 (711) (720); and Stenen, 179 (194) (194).

The Village of Sheho was the only community to show no change: 216 (216) (234).

Rural municipalities showing increases were: RM of Cote, 185 (180) (165); RM of Clayton, 328 (320) (293); RM of Preeceville, 496 (477) (420); and RM of Calder, 135 (122) (120).

RMs showing decreases were: RM of Buchanan, 101 (162) (147); RM of Insinger, 136 (143) (135); RM of Keys, 88 (141) (126); RM of Livingston, 229 (234) (230); RM of Sliding Hills, 349 (547) (524); RM of Good Lake, 205 (466) (424); RM of Hazel Dell, 604 (652) (536); RM of St. Philips, 93 (95) (89); and RM of Invermay, 108 (117) (100).

Among the First Nations reserves, Cote First Nation showed an increase, 900 (883) (920), while decreases were recorded for The Key First Nation, 149 (162) (167); and for Keeseekoose First Nation, 579 (613) (622).

The total covered population for the Sunrise Health Region decreased to 58,923 (59,551) (59,007) and the province increased to 1,148,443 (1,147,733) (1,122,537).

Saskatchewan cities

Saskatchewan cities which show decreases were: Estevan, 13,205 (13,513) (13,115); Moose Jaw, 36,118 (36,409) (36,003); Yorkton, 19,042 (19,194) (19,038); Swift Current, 17,826 (17,990) (17,681); and North Battleford, 16,599 (16,747) (16,621).

Saskatchewan cities that showed increases were: Saskatoon, 256,357 (253,882) (246,321); Regina, 224,006 (221,996) (215,004); Prince Albert, 45,182 (44,988) (44,437); Weyburn, 12,068 (11,916) (11,725); Humboldt, 6,905 (6,850) (6,804); Melville, 5,186 (5,168) (5,128); Melfort, 6,590 (6,470) (6,438); and Lloydminster (Saskatchewan), 13,964 (13,929) (13,060).

Based on a June 30 cut-off date, the annual report is compiled based on the number of Saskatchewan Health Cards issued. These reports are used more to identify trends but it is the Statistics Canada census numbers which carry more weight because any per-capita funding is based on those population numbers.