The book is still out whether Saskatchewan is on its way back.
While there are hopeful signs, there are also conflicting messages.
First, the bad news.
Saskatchewan’s driver of economic success for the past decade has been oil, which was key to Wall’s success when it was more than a $100 US a barrel and as high as $140 US a barrel.
The problem is that it’s now below $43 US a barrel. That’s close to what it averaged in the last two years, but nowhere close to the $56.25 U.S. average predicted in the 2017-18 budget released three months ago.
That said, oil land lease sales and drilling are doing slightly better than many thought they would.
But whether the economic recovery is resonating on the job front is still a matter of debate.
According the May Statistics Canada numbers, there were 1,300 more Saskatchewan people working than a year earlier.
This is not an impressive number, especially when one considers that Saskatchewan was consistently creating 10 times that many new jobs each month when the economy was clicking.
Also, many of the jobs are part time and this comes after more than a year of job losses.
Nevertheless, it was enough for the Sask. Party government to claim bragging rights.
“Our economy continues to create jobs,” Economy Minister Jeremy Harrison said in a news release. “Over the past four months we have seen positive job growth in the province. While our labour market is showing strength and resilience, other economic indicators demonstrate momentum such as wholesale trade, urban housing starts, manufacturing sales, merchandise exports and retail sales.”
Harrison pointed to a recent Conference Board of Canada predicting that the Saskatchewan economy should have one of the highest growth rates in the country.
The economy minister credited Saskatchewan’s diversification.
Unfortunately, over-reliance on the oil-based economy is largely what’s driven down the job number in recent years.
And it’s certainly why we all took such a hammering in the 2017-18 budget in tax hikes and service cuts.
But if Saskatchewan is relying other factors to lead the province’s economy recover, then there is perhaps a ray of hope.
As Harrison alluded to; employment in wholesale and retail trade increased by 5,500 jobs and manufacturing increased by 3,800 jobs.
In fact, the latest numbers show that wholesale trade in April increased by 13-per-cent compared with April 2016. This is the second-best showing among all Canadian provinces and is well above the national average of 10.3 per cent.
“The sustained growth of Saskatchewan’s wholesale trade highlights continued confidence in the province’s economy,” Harrison said of the $2.3-billion wholesale trade figure.
However, the problem remains that such numbers still do continue to swing up and down, leaving reason for doubt.
But since 2004, three years before even the arrival of Premier Wall’s Sask. Party government, there is one statistic that’s been remarkably positively consistant. And it has so far showed no signs of slowing down.
According the quarterly update based on health card numbers, Saskatchewan’s population grew by another 3,026 to 1,161,365 people in the first quarter of 2017.
That means the province’s population increased by 16,047 people – a 1.4-per-cent increase in the past year. Only Manitoba and Ontario have been growing faster.
Of course, a growing population isn’t always the sign of a healthy jurisdiction. Lots of poor countries in the world will testify to that.
Moreover, much of rural Saskatchewan isn’t sharing in this good population news.
But Saskatchewan is place where population growth success has been a key economic indicator for decades.
And as long as people are moving here and finding jobs, there is going to be hope for Saskatchewan’s economic recovery.
