By the time you read this we could be in a federal election campaign.
This has been the reality for the past month, given the bizarre nature of federal election campaigns that must be a minimum six weeks, but can last more than twice that long.
More likely, it will be called in the first week or second week of September for the Oct. 21 legislated vote date.
The polls show Conservatives and Liberals in a virtual dead heat, nationally, but the outcome in our part of the world seems far less in doubt.
Most Saskatchewan seats — especially those with a large rural components — will be voting Conservative in overwhelming numbers.
A colleague from the southeast asked me a while back when the rest of Saskatchewan get to be like his area of rural Saskatchewan that’s always been overwhelming conservative.
It’s an interesting question. There was time when at least some rural ridings would consider parking their vote for someone other than the conservative option. Today, it’s hard for other parties to even find candidates.
As recently reported by the Regina Leader-Post’s Arthur White-Crummey the Liberals and New Democrats just have six candidates in Saskatchewan, each. Both Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives and Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada have filled their slate for the 14 ridings. Even the Green Party of Canada has nine Saskatchewan candidates.
That the two most of right-of-centre parties are doing the best — at least in the candidate recruitment department — would seem to clearly indicate the case of the fact that their policies are attracting enthusiastic support.
In the case of Scheer’s Conservatives, the added prospects of winning the seat and maybe even serving in government would be added incentives. Only 14 times out of 32 federal elections, has Saskatchewan sent the majority of its MPs to the government side of the House of Commons.
However, the enthusiasm for Bernier’s PPC is more intriguing in that their candidates have precious little chance of winning seats and no chance of sitting in government even if they do. Moreover, the distain of Conservative supporters that see the PPC draining votes and, potentially, costing Conservatives seats in a tight election should make it even more difficult for the PPC to attract PPC candidates here. (Realistically, a PPC candidate won’t be a big threat to most Prairie Conservative candidates.)
But what PPC — and even Green support — would appear suggest is a commitment to ideology that may now we lacking in the Liberals and NDP ranks in this part of the country.
“You’re almost running a sacrificial candidate,” said Jim Farney, head of the university’s Department of Politics and International Studies, told White-Crummey.
With the Conservatives winning about 70 per cent of the vote in rural ridings last election (sometimes, even higher) and with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s extremely low approval rating here, the task of even getting a warm body to run as the local Liberal candidate has become increasingly difficult in many parts of rural Saskatchewan.
“We’ve checked out some candidates, and so far everyone has said ‘no, not at this time,’” said Cypress Hills-Grasslands Liberal riding association chairman Duane Filson, a former candidate in 2011.
Compared that with the Conservatives who have eight incumbents and who have held competitive nomination races that have produced as candidates Saskatchewan Party MLAs like Warren Steinley and Corey Tochor and former Conservative candidates like Michael Kram running against veteran Liberal Ralph Goodale in Regina Wascana.
Success breeds success in politics. The better a party does, the better its organization and financial support next time around. That means even in Regina Wascana, there is enthusiasm and optimism.
And when you already more philosophically appealing to voters, you may have an insurmountable head start.
Murray Mandryk has been covering provincial politics for over 22 years.
