Premier Brad Wall’s Saskatchewan Party government has yet to face a real meaningful challenge at the polls.
Yes, it has won two general elections, which are truly an exhaustive challenge — at least for those participating them.
But not withstanding the gruelling nature of provincewide campaigns, like the ones in 2011 and 2016, the outcome was hardly in doubt.
With his strong rural support, Wall virtually expended all his political energy during the past two general election campaigns driving up and down Hwy. 11 so that he could focus on Regina and Saskatoon seats where the results were more in doubt.
Sadly, it has left rural Saskatchewan out of much of the political discourse.
However, a single byelection — like the one we are about to have in Saskatoon Meewasin to replace deceased Sask. Party MLA Roger Parent — is a different story.
Leaders roll up their sleeves and get involve because they can exclusively focus on a single riding. It’s a treat for those voters, if you happen to like being inundated by politicians.
That said, with the Sask. Party’s 41-seat majority, this byelection won’t change the political landscape of the province.
And contrary to popular myth, byelections aren’t even a very good gauge of political mood.
In the past 30 years, we have seen 25 byelections in Saskatchewan. Of those, 15 have been won by an opposition party candidate and 10 have been won by a government party candidate.
That seems to somewhat dispel the notion that byelections are where voters get to safely take out their frustrations on anti-government mood.
Nor does it say much about who will win the next general election.
Of the last 25 byelections in Saskatchewan, only 13 were won by a candidate whose party would go on to win the next general election.
The biggest byelection fact is the riding’s own political history.
In 19 of the past 25 Saskatchewan byelections, the winning candidate was represented the party that last held the seat.
In fact, it’s now been 17 years since the last time we saw a byelection where the candidate for the party that previously won the seat didn’t hold the seat.
That was in 2000, when former Liberal Glen MacPherson — after a close general election — lost the Wood River seat to recently retired Sask. Party MLA Yogi Huygebaert.
It was a meaningful contest. Had the riding gone to the NDP at the time, it would have meant the then Roy Romanow government would have had a clear majority and would not have required the two Liberal MLAs to form the “coalition” NDP-Liberal government.
Since its Wood River win, Liberals have not won a seat and are no longer a force. It has set the stage for a two-party province.
But if Saskatoon Meewasin won’t change anything, why should rural voters or anyone outside the riding care? And why might it be a political challenge for Wall?
It’s because the Saskatoon Meewasin should be close and comes at time when there is upheaval over the Wall government budgets and other policies.
And it even has some political intrigue.
While Parent won the seat in 2011 and last April, the area of the city as solid New Democrat from 1986 until 2011.
It will be competitive — especially with the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives running candidates that may split votes.
Add in the factor that candidate running for the NDP is Ryan Meili — the Saskatoon doctor that twice ran for the NDP leadership and is expected to run for the vacant post again.
One would think Wall and the Sask. Party would dearly love to know Meili off.
The Saskatoon Meewasin byelection won’t change anything but there is something at stake.
Murray Mandryk has been covering provincial politics for over 22 years.
