The reality suggests we will re-elect another Saskatchewan Party government next April.
According to the latest available polling — a December 2014 by Praxis Analytics poll — Premier Brad Wall’s government still had the support of 66 per cent of the voters.
Of course, that polling is six months old and the election is still 10 months away.
Some of you may note the last month’s Alberta election where former Progressive Conservative premier Jim Prentice took his 44-year dynasty government into the campaign with a slight lead.
Over the course of Alberta’s election campaign, support for the PCs steadily dwindled until the once-unthinkable happened — a New Democratic win in Alberta.
Given that Saskatchewan already has a rich NDP history, some may argue an NDP government here cannot be nearly as terrifying as it was to Alberta voters.
Doesn’t Alberta’s vote show us that anything can and will happen in election campaigns?
One supposes it does, but there must be factors pointing to massive voter discontent with the government in order for such rare occurrences to happen. So far, nothing suggests such stars are lining up in favour of Cam Broten’s NDP Opposition.
The first factor a party has far down in the polls as the Saskatchewan NDP would need is a seismic shift in the Sask. Party, similar to the way Alberta PCs even lost Calgary and southern Alberta. When it comes to the Sask. Party base in rural Saskatchewan, there is no evidence of that happening.
Re-distribution of the ridings _ or better put, the expansion of the Saskatchewan legislature by another 3 seats to a total of 61 — has effectively preserved the number of rural seats that seem as squarely behind the government as they were in 2011 when the Sask. Party won every one of them by a majority.
A miracle for the NDP right now would be any breakthrough in rural Saskatchewan in the rural seats with smaller cities or on the northern forest fringe where the NDP last held rural seats.
But even if that happens the Sask. Party would still control the vast majority of rural Saskatchewan where the NDP has even seriously campaigned since 1999.
That would mean the Sask. Party will again need only a few seats in four major cities and the north to regain what would again a majority government.
Of course, the cities and the north have traditionally been NDP strongholds. There is little doubt that it will tougher for the Sask. Party to win either northern seats they’ve never won, or maintain seats Prince Albert and Moose Jaw and in north and east Regina and South and west Saskatoon that they won in 2011 for the first time.
But 30 points behind in the polls and with only nine current NDP MLAs, Broten’s team would have to maintain what it now has and win a remarkable 23 more seats mostly in the cities.
And there would have have to a reason for that vote shift that, right now, just isn’t evident. Or at least, so suggests the Praxis Analytics polling numbers.
Admittedly, the Praxis polling even six months ago showed increasing worry over a weakening oil-based economy. That said, the polling also shows the Sask. Party is addressing the issue in the way the public wants.
For example, infrastructure spending remains the public priority over debt paydowns, heritage funds or even direct payouts of surpluses back to the people. This also happened to be the Wall government priority in the last budget as well.
But more to the point, the Praxis polling suggests people believe the Sask. Party government economic situation is performing at high level — even higher than people’s own household situation. This is a complete reversal from the NDP days prior to happen.
Alberta suggests strange things can happen. But the polling here in Saskatchewan suggests nothing is happening that is all that different.
Murray Mandryk has been covering provincial politics for over 22 years.
