November has arrived and there are still thousands of acres of crop still in the field not harvested.
Simply put, that is a financial catastrophe for farmers across the Canadian Prairies.
The 2016 crop had looked so promising only a few months ago. The optimism of a bumper crop, one thought to rival the best ever in many regions, was alive and well. Farmers were certainly smiling at a field day held by Parkland College in Yorkton in late July. The plots looked great which was reflective of crops on farms across the region.
It didn’t matter whether it was wheat, canola, barley, or a specialty crop. Stands were good, moisture levels excellent, and expectations of overflowing grain bins come fall were building.
But I recall my grandfather often noting that a crop is never a sure thing until it is in the bin. There are simply so many weather landmines which can await a crop late in the process, frost and wet weather being two which are obvious.
This fall it has been wet, extremely wet, and that is the issue.
October has been particularly bad in terms of wet weather, with the number of sunny days so limited people can recall each one like a small nugget of gold found in the muck of days.
And the situation has compounded in terms of stopping harvest because many fields now are simply so wet large farm equipment can’t operate. The combine and grain truck simply face getting repeatedly stuck.
You now hear producers hoping for cold weather to freeze the soil so they can get in the field, although the cold would have to come without further moisture which would then turn to snow, a situation which would leave many fields to stay unharvested until spring. Such a situation reduces crop grade and increases the losses from weather and wildlife over the winter months.
The situation as noted is a rather dire one.
Anecdotally, I met a farmer from the Springside area recently in a local restaurant. He is a producer I have known for years and one I have interviewed on a few occasions. Naturally I asked him how harvest was going. His rather short reply was ‘that’s a touchy subject’ and that ended the chat. It was to say the least unexpected and what I would suggest was an out-of-character response.
It was also understandable.
The situation is not good.
If a producer has 20 per cent of his or her cropped acres still in the field, that is in essence the profit when you consider that a 20 per cent return on costs is a pretty solid profit target.
But because the cost to capture those last acres is rising, whether it’s due to wear on combines harvesting damp crop, the cost to dry grain once harvested, or the losses based on quality downgrades, that profit shrinks even if the acres are finally harvested.
Recently, I read one report pegging the value of unharvested grain and oilseeds at approximately $2 billion in Saskatchewan and $1.6 billion in Alberta. When Manitoba was added in, the prairie-wide value of unharvested farm commodities was suggested to potentially be $4 to $5 billion.
Those are big dollars especially in a region where the oil sector has been struggling for profits for months, and potash is hardly as robust as it once was.
The question is what happens now? Farm groups are already looking to the government for help, whether that is calling for cash advances on crops still in the field or some immediate cash help.
There doesn’t seem to be much appetite from the government for that though. On October 14, Saskatchewan agriculture minister Lyle Stewart said not to expect ad hoc funding, which seems to be a bit of a blanket comment weeks before we actually know how much crop is left in the field, or more succinctly what the hurt will be for farmers.
And ultimately this is more than a farm issue. When farmers hurt, fewer half-tons are sold, fewer appliances, and simply less, and that ripples through every business in communities across the Prairies.
