Welcome to the new legislature. It’s pretty much the same as the old legislature.
The next Saskatchewan legislature is going to look similar to the one before, with a small group of New Democrats facing a large, confident group of Saskatchewan Party MLAs.
While a few new faces did earn victories in the April 4 provincial election, it was very much an “incumbents’ election.” In contests between the sitting MLA and challengers attempting to steal the seat away, incumbents on both sides of the aisle won their races pretty much everywhere in the province with only a couple of exceptions.
One of those exceptions was in the riding of Prince Albert Northcote, with Nicole Rancourt of the NDP edging out incumbent Victoria Jurgens of the Saskatchewan Party by 232 votes.
The other exception proved the more stunning one, as NDP leader Cam Broten lost Saskatoon Westview by the exact same margin — 232 votes.
The winner was the Sask. Party’s David Buckingham, who had previously been mayor of Borden. Getting the large measure of blame for Broten’s defeat was a new residential area in the riding that added Sask. Party voters, as well as Broten’s opposition to a P3 for a new school in the area.
This was the second election in a row in which the NDP leader lost his seat. But unlike Dwain Lingenfelter who resigned as leader on election night in 2011, Broten indicated he would take some time to consider his options.
The final results from Westview were yet to come in when Broten addressed supporters in Saskatoon. “This isn’t quite the night that we were hoping for,” he told them.
Overall, the Sask. Party pulled in 267,238 votes province-wide, while the NDP had 129,530 for a total of 30.36 per cent, a percentage even worse than their performance in 2011. Their support that year was 31.97 per cent.
The dismal NDP vote count translated into only 10 seats across the province, a net gain of one. It was short of the most modest expectations. There was speculation going into voting day that the NDP might manage to get up to 14 or more seats. But the NDP simply failed to make the inroads they hoped to make in the half-dozen seats that were seen as the likeliest NDP pickups.
The NDP pickup of Prince Albert Northcote was widely predicted. They also took back Regina Douglas Park, which the Sask. Party’s Russ Marchuk had taken away from Lingenfelter in the 2011 vote.
But Marchuk wasn’t running again, and the new Sask. Party candidate, C.J. Katz, could not hold on against lawyer Nicole Sarauer of the NDP, who won 3,220 to 2,545.
But that was it for NDP gains in the province, and in the end one of them was cancelled out by Broten’s loss in Westview.
Other seats seen as sure NDP pickups ended up staying in the Sask. Party column. One was Moose Jaw Wakamow, which encompassed much of the seat that had been held previously by Deb Higgins of the NDP.
Higgins was defeated in 2011 by Greg Lawrence in one of the closest races in the province that year, and it was thought the boundary changes would favour the new NDP candidate Karen Purdy.
But that did not materialize. Lawrence was re-elected with 3,459 votes to 2,785 for Purdy. With Warren Michelson having an easy time in Moose Jaw North, both Moose Jaw seats stayed in the Sask. Party column.
Another NDP target that failed to come through was Saskatoon Fairview. That west-side Saskatoon seat was a longtime NDP stronghold during their years in power, but Jennifer Campeau had won the seat narrowly in 2011 for the Saskatchewan Party. The NDP thought they had a chance with Vicki Mowat, but after a hair-raising election night, it was Campeau who held on by a 194-vote margin of victory.
Two more Regina seats that the NDP had high hopes for also went the other way. The challenge from the NDP’s candidate in Regina Coronation Park, world-class runner Ted Jaleta, was a strong one, but he couldn’t win the marathon that transpired on election night. Incumbent Mark Docherty held on with 2,992 votes to Jaleta’s 2,848.
Another seat that ended up breaking NDP hearts was Regina Pasqua. Their candidate, Heather McIntyre, took a surprising lead in that riding, but the final polls to report in handed the win to Muhammad Fiaz of the Saskatchewan Party with 3,854 votes to McIntyre’s 3,579.
That seat is also notable because Liberal leader Darrin Lamoureux ran in the riding. He received 958 votes — not enough to win, but it was the best Liberal showing of any candidate in the province and may have played a spoiler role in the results there.
It wasn’t a particularly good night for the leaders of any of the smaller parties. PC leader Rick Swenson ran a distant third with 686 votes in Last Mountain-Touchwood, losing to Glen Hart. Green Party leader Victor Lau mustered only 387 votes in Regina Douglas Park.
The Saskatchewan Party had gone into the election with 49 seats. They were able to get to 51 seats in this election by winning some newly-created urban ridings under new election boundaries in place for this election.
One of those was Saskatoon Stonebridge-Dakota, won by Bronwyn Eyre. The redrawn seats of Saskatoon University and Saskatoon-Churchill-Wildwood also went the Sask. Party’s way, and their upset win in Westview was not one many observers had counted on.
But a couple of potential further gains eluded the Sask. Party’s grasp.
One of those seats was Riversdale, where the NDP’s Danielle Chartier held off Marv Friesen of the Sask. Party by 228 votes.
In Cumberland, a usually-bedrock NDP seat, the Sask. Party thought they had a strong candidate in La Ronge mayor Thomas Sierzycki.
The thinking was that if the Sask Party couldn’t win Cumberland with Sierzycki as the candidate, they probably never will.
Unfortunately for the Sask. Party, Cumberland remains never-win territory. Incumbent Doyle Vermette retained the seat for the NDP with 3,337 votes compared to 1,577 for Sierzycki, maintaining the NDP’s traditional firm grip on northern Saskatchewan.
