The province of Saskatchewan, many urban municipalities and First Nation communities have seen unprecedented growth over the past years, while some rural areas are experiencing population decline. There are some useful tools communities can use to understand how local population change and what it means for the community.
The first thing a community should evaluate is population trends, which involves looking at how Statistics Canada shows population change over the past few years. For example, annual population changes for Saskatchewan is 1.2 per cent. For many urban and rural municipalities in Northwest Saskatchewan it is two to three per cent and for many First Nations itis four to six percent. However, some rural municipalities have seen population numbers stagnate or in some cases decline as people move away from rural areas into cities. It is important to evaluate the population changes over a greater period of five years because there can be anomalies in statistical data, such as changes in data collection methods, cancellation of the census or alteration of the types of questions that may be asked by Statistics Canada.
Population trend analysis can include specific analysis of demographic ages living in the community. The average age of the population will influence where council and administration focus available funding and services for local residences. So, if the population is young, then council and administration need to consider more policies and funding around education, recreational spaces and affordable housing. If the average demographic are seniors, then policies could be tailored that accommodate the downsizing of retired farmers into urban areas, and eventually into assisted care facilities.
Once a community knows their average population change rate, the statistics can then be expanded to estimate population projections into the future. One of the communities I’m working with has a population of approximately 3,400 people, and a population growth rate of three to four per cent per year. This means that by the year 2020, the community is projected to have a population of approximately 4,000 people, in 2024 about 4,600 people and by 2028 about 5,400 people. With this in mind, council and administration need to start planning for this population growth and the implications on the community’s infrastructure, such as roads, landfill or transfer sites, lagoons, water treatment facilities, schools, housing, administration staff to assist the growing population and so on. Alternatively, if the population is declining, then the policies adopted need to evaluate a sustainable way of reducing the services provided to residents.
Most communities aim to have a growing population, because this usually diversifies the local tax base, and encourages community sustainability into the future. The most impacted area for population increases is on housing, which are largely dependent on the average household size within a community. Many of the municipalities in Northwest Saskatchewan have an average household size of two to three people. According to the 2011 census, both the Canadian and Saskatchewan average household size is approximately two to three people. Interestingly, the average household size within many First Nation communities is between six and eight people. The evaluation of housing projections becomes important because, with a population growth of four to six per cent, a community needs to evaluate how many new houses are required to accommodate a growing population, especially if there is a chronic overcrowding issue of six or more people per house. If a community is experiencing population decline, and houses are being abandoned, the council should consider policies for the appropriate decommissioning of wells to ensure source water protection and the slow removal of derelict buildings that may create safety hazards.
Planning for a community’s future is important, and statistics are a valuable tool that can be used to evaluate change and plan accordingly. The free census information provided by Statistics Canada provides insight into a community’s history and potential future. Combine these statistics with a plan to accommodate change, and council and administration will be far better prepared to deal with any future challenges that may arise.
— S. Yvonne Prusak, BASc, MA, MCIP, RPP, is a municipal planner with municipalities and communities in Northwest Saskatchewan. She specializes in land use planning and development. She can be reached at 306-845-6702.
