What is the Prime Minister up to? With the nation falling into recession and both unemployment and the cost of living rising, why is he making promises that will only resonate with small fractions of the electorate and, in the case of his stance against marijuana legalization, may run contrary to the opinion of most Canadians?
On Aug. 9, Stephen Harper announced that a re-elected Conservative government would make it a crime for Canadians to travel to designated regions within foreign countries where terrorist entities such as ISIS are engaged in hostile activities.
On Aug. 10, he spoke of the increased urgency of protecting religious diversity in the face of persecution by ISIS and promised that, if re-elected, his government would create a $9 million program to support persecuted religious minorities in the Middle East.
On Aug. 11, he repeated his opposition to de-criminalizing marijuana possession and pledged his government would allocate $27 million annually to help the RCMP crack down on illegal drug labs and grow-ops.
On Aug. 12, he committed to spend $500,000 to determine how many foreign investors have purchased condos and homes across the nation, many of which sit empty and are blamed for driving up the cost of housing in Vancouver and other Canadian cities.
With the economy faltering, why the focus on minor matters? The answer, as is often the case for the PM’s actions, is found in the numbers.
Two large polls were released last week, each with troubling findings for the Harper Conservatives. An Ipsos poll found that the Conservatives, New Democrats and Liberals are locked in a virtual tie nationally, with the NDP leading with 33 per cent, followed by the Tories at 31 and the Liberals at 28. Most respondents viewed the Tories as best at managing the economy and addressing crime and national security, but the NDP leads in areas such as helping small businesses, health and child care.
A Nanos poll yielded similar numbers nationally (NDP 31, Tories 30, Liberals 29), but provided additional information that is likely driving the strategy behind this week’s commitments by the PM.
Nanos found that just 39 per cent of voters would even consider voting for a Conservative candidate, compared to almost 50 per cent for the NDP and Liberals. That is an unlikely best-case scenario, and is lower than the 39.6 per cent the Tories received in the 2011 election, giving them a slim 11-seat majority in the House of Commons. As the “vote ceiling” numbers currently stand, it will be extremely difficult for the party to retain its majority after October 19.
With the Conservatives on a trajectory to garner their lowest popular vote percentage since the 2004 election, when they lost to the Liberals, the tactical objectives for the party are obvious -- stop the loss of voters to other parties, rely on its superior “get out the vote” capabilities, hope for Thomas Mulcair and Justin Trudeau to make serious mistakes over the coming weeks, and pray that a blizzard of attack ads in the final days of the campaign drives support back to Harper.
This week’s campaign commitments, emphasizing the party’s perceived strengths, are an important component of that strategy. The anti-ISIS, anti-Muslim pledges play to the red-meat segment of the party, and are also aimed at Jewish voters in crucial swing ridings in Montreal, Toronto and Winnipeg. The strong anti-drug script resonates with the party’s law-and-order faction, while the absentee foreign ownership crackdown is aimed at swing ridings in Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto, as well as supporters who resent “foreigners” buying up Canadian property.
Targeted micro-commitments such as those delivered earlier this week are intended to harden the party base. They remind segments of supporters why they voted for Tory candidates in previous elections, but they also present the Liberals and NDP with tough choices - if they oppose the promise, they are condemned as soft on crime, pro-drugs or ISIS sympathizers. If they support the policies, they risk offending their own supporters.
It’s small-ball politics, but an 11-week campaign gives Harper ample time to make plenty of these promises in ridings where they can make a difference. If he can pull it off, it may be enough to keep him in office.
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