The Saskatchewan Roughriders have lost three games in a row, and some would argue they've lost all the positive momentum they built up over an impressive 8-1 start. In my opinion, some people would be wrong, and here's why.
Momentum is one of the most ubiquitous but least understood concepts in sports. Listen to a broadcast of almost any game, regardless of the sport, and you're likely to hear the announcer mention how one team has "gained the momentum" after an important touchdown or critical penalty.
Recently, though, momentum has been building behind the idea that momentum doesn't really exist. Bill Barnwell, the lead NFL writer for Grantland.com, has been a leader of the crusade against what he calls "nomentum".
"I can't prove that momentum does or does not exist in sports," Barnwell wrote in a column on Aug. 19, "because it's an arbitrary, abstract idea that you can mold into just about anything you want to tell the story you're looking to tell."
Read the whole column if you like, but I tend to agree with Barnwell that momentum is a storytelling tool used by people like me (journalists) to explain independent events that have no real connection to each other.
Take, for example, the goal line stand. Few plays in football are as flush with momentum: The team that fails to score is deflated, while the defence snatches away the momentum and inspires the offence to march down the field and drive a stake through the opposition's momentum-less heart.
Well, it's not quite that simple. Barnwell looked at close to 1,500 drives in the NFL that began inside the 5-yard line, either via punt, turnover or stopping the opposition on downs. If you believe in momentum you'd think drives that began after a stop on downs would be most successful, but Barnwell found those drives actually produced the lowest average of points per drive. The most? Drives resulting from a punt, a momentum-less part of the game if there ever was one.
What does this have to do with the 2013 edition of the Saskatchewan Roughriders? Well, they seem to be classic examples of being on the wrong side of momentum. Following a 24-22 loss to the B.C. Lions on Sept. 22. the team has lost three games in a row and fallen from first to third in the West Division standings.
Sandwiched between those losses was the arrest of three players allegedly involved in a vicious assault. Star running back Kory Sheets missed the game against B.C. with a knee sprain. That record-setting 8-1 start seems like a distant memory now, and visions of winning the Grey Cup at home have been temporarily transformed into mirages. It's been a disaster, to say the least.
Before fans completely give up on this season, they might want to become familiar with a concept called regression to the mean. Simply put, it means that over time, performance will settle at its true level. A career .250 batter might hit .400 over the first month of the season, but it's more than likely he'll be back to that .250 level by the time the season ends.
The Roughriders probably aren't as bad as their last three games have looked. On the other hand, they probably weren't as good as that 8-1 start suggested. In a league with an 18-game season there is a lot more room for exceptional, unsustainable performances, both good and bad. There's a reason why the NFL is the most unpredictable of the four major leagues; with such a short schedule there's a higher likelihood of upstarts and disappointments.
The modern sports landscape is defined by overreaction and hyperbole. With 24/7 coverage across multiple platforms, the easiest way to draw eyeballs (and advertisers) is to scream the loudest and make the most outrageous claim. Riders fans would be wise to avoid the temptation to sink into despair and remember the words of Hall of Famer Bill Parcells, who coached the Giants, Patriots, Jets and Cowboys: "You are what your record says you are."
The Riders are an 8-4 team. They aren't a historic juggernaut, but they aren't the hapless bunch they've been over the past three games either. It might be tempting to blame it all on momentum or karma, but the truth is probably a little simpler and a lot more boring.
