Over a decade ago, Dr. Ross McKitrick, economist from the University of Guelph, ran an experiment.
At the time, eco-activists were demanding a shut-down of coal-fired power plants, claiming emissions were killing children who had asthma. McKitrick took the Illness Cost of Air Pollution computer model that these activists were using to predict deaths and medical costs, and he entered into the model the known, relevant factors and statistics and then ran the model backwards in time.
This is a common way to test the quality of a computer model, because if known, relevant factors are entered into the computer, then the outputs should parallel the observed results as well, proving the model's ability to accurately predict.
A revealing thing happened. Even though McKitrick was using a time period where air pollution in Canada was significantly worse than today, the model failed to report any results that were close to reality. By the time the model reached February 1965, it was claiming that more people had died of air pollution, than there were actual deaths.
This proves the ICAP model is a failure and should not be used for setting public health policy.
But here we are, a decade later, and the Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment, in conjunction with the Pembina Institute's damning report "A Costly Diagnosis: Subsidizing Coal Power with Albertans' Health," uses the ICAP model, as well as faulty data, to falsely accuse Alberta's coal-fired power generation industry of crimes it does not commit.
First off, the Pembina Institute report claims that coal-fired power plants emit six per cent of the human-made PM2.5 (particulate matter smaller than 2.5 microns - damaging to lungs and health) in Alberta.
That is incorrect, an exaggeration by 15 times. The correct 2011 figure from Environment Canada for PM2.5 emissions from coal-fired power plants in Alberta is only 0.4 per cent of human-made emissions.
Secondly, thanks to Dr. Ross McKitrick who was kind enough to do the math again on this faulty model, found that over half of ALL deaths in Alberta, based on Pembina's reckoning, were being attributed to asthma or coal-fired power plant emissions, which he found implausible.
Residential fireplaces emit double the PM2.5 of coal-fired plants. Excluded from the human-caused Environment Canada stats is the full scope of wildfire emissions. Forest fires in 2011 emitted 1,000 times the PM 2.5 of coal-fired plants.
Wildfire smoke hazards can reach PM2.5 levels of 250 micrograms per cubic meter. By comparison, the first level trigger for air quality in Alberta's Capital Region Airshed is 15 microgram per cubic meter.
Wildfire emissions are poorly combusted - full of toxic and carcinogenic elements. By contrast, coal-fired plants use pulverized coal for a complete burning process and they have modern emissions management - filters and scrubbers built-in to the plant.
Power plant operators must report on emissions levels every hour. The air in Alberta is independently monitored by a network of some 160 ground monitors, about 40 National Air Pollution Surveillance Monitors, and also satellite monitors through the Canadian Space Agency and NASA, which report twice daily through the GEM-MACH air quality forecasting system.
Closing coal-fired power plants will send power prices sky-high - and not benefit anyone's health.
Ontario didn't listen to Dr. McKitrick. They listened to the Pembina Institute and a bevy of anti-coal activists. Ontario shut down their coal-fired power plants and now Ontario hospitals are facing power prices that have jumped 27 per cent. The Windsor Star reports that hospitals will have to cut services.
In Alberta, the anti-coal activists push wind and solar as they did in Ontario. These "renewables' are unreliable, intermittent power sources that require 24/7 back-up of fossil fuels! And CAPE doctors claim to be offering unbiased medical advice for 'cleaner power' but their web-site says they are financially supported by renewable power agent, Bullfrog Power.
Faulty model. Emission statistics that are wrong by 15 times. Apparent conflict of interest.
Advocacy groups that omit relevant facts and use wildly exaggerated statistics and emotional rhetoric in their ads to incite undue public alarm should be condemned by the public, industry and government.
Facts, not model madness, should rule the day.
- Michelle Stirling-Anosh is the Communications Manager of Friends of Science.
References:
Air Pollution, Health and Mortality: Separating Fact from Fiction (see page 13 last line of 1st paragraph)
www.troymedia.com
