Premier Scott Moe is pushing Saskatchewan into a risky cycle of debt and overspending.
While Ontario and Quebec have long been mired in debt, Saskatchewan is catching up at a breakneck pace. That’s not a sign of progress—it’s a flashing red warning sign.
Government debt isn’t just a number on a spreadsheet. It has real consequences. It means more money spent on interest payments instead of services people rely on, like health care and education. It limits the government’s flexibility in times of crisis. And it increases the likelihood that taxes will go up in the future. Saskatchewan used to be in better fiscal shape than most provinces. That advantage is fast disappearing.
Three premiers remain from those elected in 2018: Quebec’s François Legault, Ontario’s Doug Ford and Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe. Since then, Legault has increased Quebec’s debt by about 30 per cent, Ford has added 36 per cent to Ontario’s, and Moe has increased Saskatchewan’s by a staggering 113 per cent.
That kind of rapid growth in debt is showing up across the board. Since 2018, per-person debt in Saskatchewan has jumped 96 per cent. In contrast, it rose by only 20 per cent in Ontario and 19 per cent in Quebec. The cost of carrying that debt is also climbing steeply. Interest payments per person have risen 96 per cent in Saskatchewan, while Ontario and Quebec have seen far more modest increases of 15 and two per cent, respectively. Saskatchewan may still owe less per person—about $10,000 less than Ontario and Quebec—but the province is closing the gap at an alarming pace.
Since Moe took office, his government has added $12.4 billion to the provincial debt. Of that, $6.6 billion was added during the height of the pandemic, when most governments were spending heavily to respond to the crisis. But that still leaves $5.8 billion added to the debt before and after the pandemic period—growth that can’t be explained away by COVID-19 alone.
In 2018, Saskatchewan’s total debt stood at about $11 billion, or $9,561 per person. Now, it’s on track to hit $23.5 billion and $18,753 per person. That’s nearly double in just a few years. It’s a trend that should worry not only economists but every Saskatchewan taxpayer.
This rising debt puts the province’s recent tax relief efforts at risk. To Moe’s credit, Saskatchewan has avoided major across-the-board tax hikes. The government has halved the small business tax rate and raised the basic personal amount—the income you can earn before paying taxes—by $500. It plans to keep increasing that threshold over the next four years. If fully implemented, about 54,000 residents will no longer pay provincial income tax. These are meaningful improvements for working families and small businesses.
But those gains will be short-lived if spending continues to outpace revenue. Interest payments are consuming more of the provincial budget every year. As that continues, the government will be forced to find new revenue, and the first place it’s likely to look is taxpayers’ wallets. If debt doesn’t come down, tax hikes are only a matter of time.
This year alone, Saskatchewan taxpayers will pay $878.4 million just to cover interest on the debt. That’s money that won’t go to classrooms, hospitals, or public safety. To put it in perspective, that amount could pay the annual salaries of nearly 8,800 new nurses. It’s a massive opportunity cost.
Moe can take some credit for maintaining a lower overall debt burden than Ontario and Quebec. But he should be far more concerned about the trajectory his government is on. The pace of Saskatchewan’s debt growth is unsustainable, and the mounting interest payments are a warning of what’s to come.
If the government doesn’t correct course soon, the cost of inaction will fall squarely on the shoulders of Saskatchewan taxpayers. A failure to act now will only make the solutions more painful down the road.
Gage Haubrich is the Prairie Director for the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.
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