The days of spring are quickly passing, and farmers are starting to get on the land to start seeding operations.
That's the good news, although the conditions remain tenuous at best.
The sun and wind of the past week may finally be drying out the topsoil enough to allow tractors to cross the fields, but the moisture level is still high. That means that it will take very little in the way of rain before fields are saturated again, chasing farmers back to their homes.
For farmers to get the crop in the ground, at least a majority of it, we need five, or six weeks of rainless weather. Outside of winter, we have not had that sort of break in the rain in what seems like ages.
Even with ideal conditions there are going to be acres farmers would traditionally plant which will not be seeded because they are under water.
In a world where people still go to bed hungry at night one might imagine a huge question mark hanging over what has in the past been called the 'Bread Basket of the World' in regards to even getting this year's crop in the ground, would sent grain prices higher.
Interestingly that has not been the situation, at least so far.
There are reasons of course for the lack of market reaction.
To begin with there is a realization farmers today can plant a crop in a far shorter time than in the past. The size of equipment and technological advancements allow farmers to burn through a lot of acres in a day, which even a couple of decades ago was not possible. The market recognizes the reliability of Canadian Prairie farmers to get the crop in the ground.
The lack of price reaction to wet fields here this year is also an indication that Canada is less critical in terms of food production than it once was.
There is more recognition that food grains are not grown for export in more countries than ever before. Where Canada, the United States, and Australia were once not just the major exporters, but realistically the only ones. The countries of the European Union, the former Soviet Union, and South America all play a role in food grains exporting today.
The broader range of countries exporting food grains has reduced the reliance on any one country, or region, to the point the mere threat of seeding issues doesn't send markets into a panic which boosts prices.
That said if we continue to get rains which slow seeding here to the point of idling more acres prices are likely to react higher.
That of course would almost be salt in the wound for farmers since they would face the situation where prices are higher but they would have acres not seeded.
The situation is far from ideal for farmers, but it does provide some actual evidence of how markets now see the importance of the Canadian crop.
