To tell you the truth, I have no idea.
It's probably not the best way to start an opinion piece, but that does tell how little I understand the current Russian government. It's pretty obvious that Russia is accumulating military powers alongside the border, and Ukraine is calling for the allies to be ready. But why is Russia doing what it's doing? That's where I get frustrated.
Back in 2014, when so-called polite green people appeared in the Crimea peninsula, just like now people around me were asking what was going on. I was trying to analyze the situation, but never in my life could I imagine that the story would move the way it did.
So when those green aliens first arrived there and the talks about the referendum started, I thought, "Well, it is true that a big percentage of the population in Crimea is Russian or Russian-Ukrainian but with pro-Russian attitudes."
The Russian-supervised referendum occurred and when Crimea announced its independence I was pretty shocked, but not completely. I thought, "Well, there are countries where a condensed minority living in a particular area got together, banked on their differences from the rest of the country and got out, thinking they'd be better off on their own, like Kosovo." So Crimea will be independent, it's not that it was a completely independent decision, but it happened and that wasn't the worst case, I was thinking then.
Since the Soviet times, Russia had its big fleet based in Crimea, which the Ukrainian government was trying to move a few times, and in the back of my mind, I thought that one way or the other, sooner or later Russia will do something to resolve it. So the creation of a pro-Russian quasi-state was something that made sense to me if you look from the Russian perspective.
I thought it was the end of the story. And even when the Russian government announced that the people of Crimea reached out to them asking to become a part of the Russian Federation, I was absolutely sure that no, that's never going to happen. In my opinion, it was crazy on all fronts. Leaving aside the human rights and political etiquette of the 21st century, I couldn't see why the Russian bear would want to swallow this subsidized region, which came with endless economic sanctions and political conflicts. Well, the world knows what happened.
So, this time I'm not trying to guess what's going to happen.
Now that I see more and more of my Ukrainian friends having the Ukrainian flag on their social media pictures, as I read more analytics, news articles and posts about what's happening over there and what potentially can happen, I kind of feel the same way as I did back in 2014. I just don't want to believe it.
Many analysts agree that there is a potential war ripening along the border, but this war, if it is to happen, is stupidity, nonsense and absurdity, which is happening through a fault of two players – Russia and the U.S.
None of the talks between Russia and the U.S. over the last how many years resulted in anything. And while the world has been pretty careful when it comes to Russian affairs, the West hasn't been taking Russia as a serious global player, which doesn't suit President Vladimir Putin. So is it a Russian way to attract Washington's attention?
The other day I read a joke that Putin lined the tanks at the Ukrainian border into saying "Joe, call me. Vlad." Metaphorically, it seems that it's exactly what is happening.
The Russian demand to guarantee that Ukraine will never become part of NATO, which would pretty much mean that Ukraine would remain a Russian area of influence, was rejected. According to the conflict spiral model, conflict escalation assumes that each reaction is more severe and intense than the action that precedes it. Does it mean that war against Ukraine or occupation of some territories will be the next move? I don't think so (but again, it might be just me being naïve).
Analytics say that neither of the two countries is actually ready for any real military action.
While the Russian army is historically bigger, and a lot of money goes into it, the moods and the economy are not there. Ukraine did improve their troops and structure since 2014, however, its weapons are still mainly outdated.
However, as little as anybody wants to see any military action anywhere in the world, there's a lot of talk about it. Will it happen? I don't know, but if anything happens, I can see a lot of changes coming to both of the countries and the global situation. Unfortunately, I assume that the need to give the West a more intense response will keep Russia going, troops will keep accumulating along the Ukrainian border, and as Meduza's reporter, Konstantin Gaaze put it, Russia will eventually create a really expensive anti-NATO diaper, and the situation will remain unstable, just burning billions of, first of all, rubles, but also dollars, as any conflict escalation assumes the rise in action on both sides.
But I sincerely hope that the ongoing fist-shaking will find its way out and will eventually de-escalate, as if it doesn't, there will be no winners in this absurdity.
