With the continued flattening of the curve in Saskatchewan, the Saskatchewan Health Authority (SHA) released an updated version of their modelling and health care system readiness plan on Tuesday, showing a large decrease in projected cases and deaths in the province. “Despite all good news our province has seen related to how COVID-19 spreads, these plans are critically important,” said SHA CEO Scott Livingstone.
“We have to continue to plan for the worst while hoping for the best,” he added.
From the initial modelling released April 8, in comparison to the presentation released Tuesday, April 28, the SHA’s original projected planning numbers for total cases in the province were 335,000 cases. The new projected cumulative total released by the SHA sat at 254,756.
Additionally, original planning numbers for projecting worst case scenario modelling around deaths in Saskatchewan went from 6,815 to 3,050 in the new modelling.
Livingstone said modelling is not a crystal ball; it is used to plan. He added at the time the initial modelling was released, the SHA was using information from outside Saskatchewan. “I think since those days we’ve seen things happen across this country that is sobering to say the least with respect to how the system is preparing itself,” said Livingstone.
“We do know from the modeling if you withdraw a major component of public health orders or public distancing, the case numbers projected go right up to one of the worst-case scenarios,” he added.
New Saskatchewan specific information shows the province’s Basic Reproductive Number for the virus at 3.12; a number representing how many people could be infected with no interventions.
Livingstone said the province’s success is what can be aggravating to those reading the modelling numbers in terms of the differential relating to model numbers and actual numbers.
“You’re not seeing us blow-out the hospitals with demand and you’re not seeing cases skyrocket, but that’s because of some very intentional things that have been put in place,” said Livingstone.
The province has an effective reproductive number of 0.7 as of April 25. The 0.7 number represents the average number of people per person likely to be infected with the virus at the current time.
Additionally, represented in the updated modelling, assumptions now estimate needing 1,000 fewer hospital beds, 400 fewer ICU beds and 400 fewer ventilators than previously announced on April 8.
The SHA modeling presentation also said surging contact tracing is set to stay ahead of demand, including a plan to meet any scenario up to 618 new cases per day.
Saskatchewan had 366 cases of COVID-19. Of those cases, 291 recovered, eight were in hospital and five had died by April 28, 2020.
