With harvest wrapping up, producers are thankful for some crop choices, while regretting others.
Canola has come through the year with shining colours. It's an amazing plant to start with and plant breeding just keeps making it better. For most producers, yields have been above expectations, the quality is good and current prices are well over $10 a bushel.
Yields have ranged from 20 to 60 bushels per acre with most between 25 and 40. At current prices, that generates a strong profit.
In the central and northern grainbelt, producers have long been growing canola in a tight rotation with other crops. Rotations are now being shortened so that canola is grown every second year on some fields and there's even some canola seeded on canola stubble which is not a recommended practice.
In southern regions of the province, canola is catching on in a big way and the southern acreage will just continue to expand given this year's stellar results.
Another crop with strong profitability is lentils. However, it's an understatement to say that quality and therefore returns vary widely.
There are producers with 2,000 pounds per acre who sold off the combine at 37 cents a pound. At over $700 an acre gross return that beats even the best canola crops.
There are other producers with yields of around 1,000 pounds per acre who have to sell low quality product for only 20 cents a pound. Overall though, rising lentil prices have helped compensate for the quality downgrading.
The other major pulse crop is field peas. Some analysts believe yellow pea prices will improve to at least $6.00 a bushel, but a lot of the yield results this year have been disappointing. Peas didn't seem to handle the saturated soil very well.
The price outlook for wheat has improved significantly as compared to last year, but grades are all over the map due to disease, frost and sprouting. The top price for wheat is expected to be about $6.50 a bushel, but due to downgrading, most of the production will likely be sold in the $5.00 to $5.50 range.
The grade situation is probably even worse on durum and the price outlook is lower overall. Rather than the top grade, high protein price of around $5.50 a bushel, most of the production will be in the $4.50 to $5.00 range.
You need a very good yield to make much money at those prices.
In barley, the story is the return of an export market. In recent years, the domestic livestock industry has been paying better values than the export market and very little Canadian barley has left the country. This year, the world market has improved and there will be a significant export program.
The Canadian Wheat Board is projecting feed barley prices net to Saskatchewan growers of around $3.40 a bushel, while malting barley is expected to be around $4.10. Again, these aren't big money makers unless you grow lots of bushels.
Flax acreage and production are way down and prices are now sky high - $13 a bushel or more.
Oats is a crop suffering from a decline in demand. Fewer oats are being fed to American horses and a decline in milling demand is also reported. The 2010 American oat crop is expected to be the lowest on record and yet they're expected to decrease the amount of oats imported from Canada.
While a lot could change between now and spring, expect canola acres to increase next year, while lentil acres will likely consolidate to the more traditional growing regions. Wheat acres could also rise at the expense of the other cereal and specialty crops.
Kevin Hursh is a consulting agrologist and farmer based in Saskatoon. He can be reached via email at: [email protected].
