China's newish head honcho, Xi Jinping, appears to be getting friendlier with the world and his own people. At the recent Brisbane G-20 meeting, Xi (pronounced "shee") even made nice with U.S. President Barack Obama and Japanese Prime Minister Shinz Abe, He also promoted the rule of law at every opportunity and recently used velvet gloves with Hong Kong protesters.
China has nasty, often violent, territorial disputes with virtually all its neighbours and demands "undisputed" sovereignty of the South China Sea, a key world trade route that borders on Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines as well as China. This is akin to Italy claiming the undisputed sovereignty over the Mediterranean as a "Roman lake" although that claim, unlike many of China's claims, would at least have some basis in history.
The new Chinese passport even shows a much expanded China, including ownership of the South China Sea. Neighbours fear they are being forced to acknowledge China's demands every time they stamp a passport. No claim yet on Canada's Queen Charlotte Islands, but give Xi a chance.
As for the rule of law, historians almost unanimously agree China has never had the rule of law (i.e. a judicial system that is independent of government, able to rule against government, and treat all equally). In fact, there is no phrase for rule of law in this sense in either Mandarin or Cantonese. So what does Xi - who gives his speeches in Chinese and not English - mean when he calls for the rule of law?
I was recently in Hong Kong for this year's Asia Economic Freedom Conference, which is based on the Fraser Institute's economic freedom reports and sponsored by Hong Kong's Lion Rock Institute and the Asia office of the German Friedrich Naumann Foundation. The Conference attracted more than 100 delegates from across Asia and gave me an opportunity to meet folks from Hong Kong, from average protesters to key opposition figures in the Legislative Council.
As for Beijing's velvet gloves with Hong Kong demonstrators, the velvet does not signal tolerance so much as good tactics. Beijing refuses to compromise with the demonstrators and is waiting them out because students can't remain on the streets forever and people whose lives and businesses are negatively affected by the protests are losing patience.
So despite superficial appearances to the contrary, this is a dangerous time for Hong Kong and the future direction of China. At the very least, outside observers should be aware of what the Chinese government and president are up to - and that the rule of law and international neighbourliness are not, in fact, on the agenda.
Fred McMahon is the Dr. Michael A. Walker research chair in economic freedom at the Fraser Institute.
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