With a big mouth and a poor decision, Jack Layton has effectively ended all hope of the federal NDP getting votes in the western provinces. The reason boils down to the long gun registry, which is about as popular in the west as a Menudo tribute band. If you support it, you will not get votes, and Layton has come out and said that the NDP will give the registry enough support to finish Conservative MP Candice Hoeppner's private member's bill to scrap the registry.
With any other party, the choice for which side to vote on is clear. The Conservatives have a large voter base out west and campaigned on scrapping the registry. As a result, they're going to make a bit of an effort every year until they finally succeed. If they fail, they'll simply say they need a majority to do it and try again next year. They have very little to lose either way, their distaste for it is well known, so long as the effort is made everything is fine.
The Liberal party will want to keep it, because they made the thing. Their support in the west is basically ruined anyway, so keeping the registry is a matter of saving face and keeping that part of their legacy going. Admitting a mistake is rare in politics at the best of times, so the Liberals will never willingly give in on the issue.
Last, and certainly least, the Bloc Quebecois will always support the long gun registry because Quebec likes it and they don't have to care about any other province. They benefit from having to satisfy the smallest variety of people, and their roles as parliamentary trolls is assured so long as they keep the people back home happy.
So, essentially, the role of each party in the debate is assured, with one exception, the federal NDP. They are the deciding factor, and the logical solution is to simply let the drama play out. Don't give a party line, and don't have the leader announce anything. Take blame or credit on a constituency basis after the vote, but don't court attention beforehand.
Why keep publicity at a minimum? It's simple, the issue is divisive. It has become symbolic of the divide between eastern and western Canada, and to come out either in support or against it is going to anger a large swath of voters. Having the MP vote solely on what their constituency wants would emphasize that they're voting based on the people they represent, and keeping a party line nonexistent would ensure that people are not going to associate you with unpopular legislation.
Now, by announcing that the NDP is going to give enough votes to save the registry, Layton is giving the Conservatives all the western seats in a gift box with a lovely bow on top. He's proposing changes to make it less of a pain - introducing legislation to make a first-time failure to register a firearm a non-criminal ticketing offence and to waive fees for new licences - but, like putting sprinkles on a burnt cake, it's a solution that satisfies nobody.
The end result will be simple, Layton and his NDP will be associated with the gun registry, effectively ending any hope of his party challenging the Conservatives in the west. With dominance all but guaranteed come next election, suddenly I wonder if western voters will even be a priority. No matter your political stripe, you don't want a foregone conclusion.
