What goes up must come down. It does not take a rocket scientist to understand this.
The latest estimates put the number of artificial satellites orbiting the Earth at over six thousand. About half are active communications, weather, navigation, research and entertainment satellites, and the International Space Station. The other half are space junk made up of old, inactive satellites and launch units such as rocket boosters.
Since the Soviet Union launched Sputnik One in October of 1957, nine countries and a few consortiums have joined the space race, with the USA leading the pack. On a clear night, you can see a satellite cross overhead every few minutes.
Around twenty after midnight (our time) on November 13th, the Earth is going to be struck by something. We’re not sure what, but them who are really good at math are pretty sure it came from here.
For safety, we actually make an effort to track all that stuff, but this item isn’t on the list. There’s an old adage that says naming something unknown makes it more familiar, so the European Space Agency (ESA) named it WT1190F (aptly shortened to WTF by some others).
From its current trajectory, and previous brief sightings the last few years, this object has an orbit that takes it out beyond the Moon and back every three weeks or so. Its mass is very low and it’s more reflective than a rock would be, so the guess is a hollow metal structure a few meters across, like the upper stage of a rocket.
If all goes according to plan, most of whatever it is should burn up in a brief but spectacular trail around noon over the southern Indian Ocean. Whatever’s left will impact along a five kilometer stretch of water about 100 kilometers south of Sri Lanka. Just to be completely safe, boats normally in the area will be advised to be somewhere else.
The ESA’s Near Earth Object Coordination Centre, tasked with tracking asteroids, comets and other space rocks that could potentially hit the Earth, will be using this event to evaluate their systems for when a real threat comes from space. That is a good thing.
What is not so good is that somebody labelled a rocket scientist should know better than to launch something with no idea of where it’s going to come down. With over three thousand space junk re-entries to go, plus those they haven’t told us about, there’s a chance you may, some day, get to see one of these from your own back yard.
