It's interesting to watch the reactions of the world in response to the death of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Il. The man had a mix of insanity and power that was dangerous, though he tended to use it in really strange ways - such as kidnapping film directors to make him movies or using his country's propaganda to brag about how great he was at golf - he still represented a real threat for the world. So, in aftermath of his death, everyone is wondering what's next for North Korea, and it's leading to all manner of speculation.
The most optimistic response has to be from Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who has expressed that this is a chance for the country to come out from under an oppressive regime. While I appreciate his optimism and hope for the best for the people of North Korea, I have to admit that I'm a bit more pessimistic than he is when it comes to the situation in the country.
The reason for my pessimism is simple, a man like Kim Jong-Il doesn't stay in power because he's a brilliant leader. While he was the international face of the country's government, he doesn't stay in power without a great deal of support within the country, especially from organizations such as the military. Since he had been ill for some time, they also had plenty of time to prepare a plan to transition to the next leader, which appears to be Kim Jong-Un, his son. So instead of having a break where the country can take command, I can't say I expect this to be the chance for the people of the nation to take control.
In all honesty, I don't expect Kim Jong-Un to take control in any meaningful way either. Now, obviously, I don't know the man, but he's very young, somewhere in his mid-20s. As a result, he's very inexperienced, and I suspect that some people within the North Korean government are going to see him as a chance to take control, and use their influence to get more power within the country. The scary thing about Kim Jong-Un is that he's a complete unknown. Whatever you might think of his father, at least he had a brand of crazy that the rest of the world was able to recognize and get a handle on. The new guy has been around for so little time there's no real indication of what he's going to do, or in what the people who are jockeying to influence him are going to do.
That said, I can still understand our Prime Minister's optimism about the situation. In spite of all I've said, it must be noted that South Korea has become a major force in the past few years, and I suspect everyone owns a product from a manufacturer in the country. Getting a new guy in charge of the North might mean he can see that their neighbors are doing well while his country is not, and perhaps things need to change, and without his paranoid father around there's a chance to change direction. That's a sign of hope, and new people in charge could mean a new country, or at least a much different direction.
So I'd argue that the best reaction to the news is caution. It's a wild card, North Korea, and it's a wild card sitting right beside major economic powerhouses in the region. For the first time in a very long time, we have a situation where we have no idea what's next. Since this will affect everyone, it's a bit of a scary time for the world.
