There were sharp changes in Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s estimates for the 2025/26 canola crop when it came to production and ending stocks.
AAFC has now pegged canola output at 20.1 million tonnes, up 12.9 per cent from its July forecast.
Also, the oilseed’s carryout was doubled from last month to now 2.20 million tonnes.
Hot and dry weather during July was replaced by widespread rains during August, which helped restore soil moisture across the southern half of the canola growing region.
The department based its calculations on satellite imaging with model-based estimates.
As for exports, AAFC noted the recent 75.8 per cent tariff China imposed on Canadian canola seed, which led to an increase in the ending stocks.
They say the announcement is bearish for Canadian canola prices; however, the impact is expected to be somewhat muted by an expansion in domestic crush capacity and by the substitutability of export markets.
