WESTERN PRODUCER — The difference between federal and provincial government crop estimates might just be a matter of timing, says a government official.
Statistics Canada has come under fire by market analysts for being way off on its yield and production estimates, especially for small-acreage crops such as pulses and special crops.
For instance, it is forecasting a lentil crop of 1.54 million tonnes. Saskatchewan yield estimates suggest the crop could be closer to 2.14 million tonnes.
That is a sizeable discrepancy that can have a big effect on lentil prices.
John Seay, unit head with Statistics Canada’s agriculture division, said the difference could have something to do with when the yield estimates were formulated.
He said the agency’s Model-Based Principal Field Crop Estimates report released Sept. 14 was derived from data gathered in August.
“We do treat them at this point as preliminary estimates,” said Seay.
By comparison, Saskatchewan Agriculture’s latest yield forecasts were collected from its reporters Oct. 10–16.
“They would likely have incorporated more and different data,” he said.
Statistics Canada will be surveying 27,200 farmers in November to determine its final estimates of acreage, yield and production.
Seay doesn’t know if those numbers will be more in line with provincial crop estimates, but they will certainly be more current than the ones contained in the September report.
Statistics Canada kicked off the growing season with its April 26 seeding intentions report based on a survey conducted in December 2022 and January 2023.
Analysts heavily criticized that report for being outdated by the time it was released.
It was followed by the Principal Field Crop Areas report released June 28, which was based on a survey conducted in May and June.
Then there were two model-based yield and production reports, one for July that was released Aug. 29 and one for August released Sept. 14.
The final yield and production estimates will be out Dec. 4.
The agency plans to take the exact same approach next year despite all the criticism.
“At this time there are no changes in store for the estimates,” he said.
Seay said Statistics Canada will continue to find ways to modernize its reports while reducing the burden on farmers.
“There are things we are looking at but nothing concrete in mind at this point in time,” he said.
The latest change happened this year when the agency used its new model-based approach to estimate March on-farm stocks.
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