Sometime after October 19, when we look back at the federal election campaign, will we say that last week was the tipping point in the campaign, or will we regard it as a tempest in a teapot that occurred before the real campaign even began?
It’s a question that is obviously impossible answer just three weeks into an 11-week campaign, but it is easy to get the sense that a number of important things happened last week, and none of them were good for the Conservatives’ re-election hopes. At the top of the list is the testimony of Nigel Wright and Benjamin Perrin during the criminal trial of Tory Senator Mike Duffy. Both Wright and Perrin are former staffers in the Prime Minister’s Office.
For several days, Wright provided a portrait of a PMO that placed higher priority on protecting Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party from embarrassment than on being honest with the Canadian public. One of the most memorable aspects of his testimony was his assertion that having Duffy claim he reimbursed taxpayers for questionable expense claims made by him, when he (Wright) had actually funded the reimbursement, did not amount to a “bad misrepresentation.”
Was Wright saying that lying to the public is permissible when it serves the interests of the PM and his party? That’s certainly the way it has been interpreted in the media.
Perrin’s evidence established that numerous senior PMO staff were aware that it was Wright, not Duffy, who was funding the reimbursement. That’s a problem for Harper, who has consistently insisted, including in response to questions in the House of Commons, that he was never told it was Wright who had paid the money.
In other words, the most hands-on Prime Minister in Canadian history expects Canadians to believe his most-trusted advisors deliberately kept him in the dark for more than two years, allowing him to give answers they knew were untrue.
Harper has to take that position because the alternative would be admitting that he knew all along that Wright had bankrolled the reimbursement, and that he has lied about it for more than two years. The PM will never make that admission -- it would destroy his hopes of re-election -- but it is a conclusion that an increasing number of Canadians are already making.
Many Conservative supporters argue that the Duffy trial and the $90,000 payment are a distraction from what the decisive issue should be in this campaign but they are ignoring (and asking voters to ignore) the more troubling questions that logically flow from Wright’s and Perrin’s testimony.
For example, if the Prime Minister’s senior staff is so willing to lie to Canadians about picayune issues like the repayment of Duffy’s expense claims, what about big issues? What else have they lied to us about? Were the lies about Duffy the actions of rogue staffers, or did they reflect a PMO value system created, managed and enforced by the Prime Minister himself?
The Conservatives want voters to cast their ballots based upon who they trust most to lead the country through economic and national security challenges, but the campaign may be evolving into one in which the ballot box question simply asks Canadians which leader and party they trust most. If that happens, the Tories could be in trouble.
Indeed, an Abacus Research poll released last week revealed that Harper’s negative ratings have risen by 12 per cent since last December, while positive ratings for both NDP leader Thomas Mulcair and Liberal leader Justin Trudeau have increased sharply.
The poll also found that both Mulcair and Trudeau “score more positively than Mr. Harper on 8 of the 12 dimensions: Principled, ethical, honest, accountable, good ideas, good heart, understands people like you, interesting. . . Mr. Harper’s best scores are for being smart, tough, and ready to be PM. His scores are much lower for being honest, accountable, and understanding people like you.”
When Stephen Harper launched the campaign, it appeared to be his to lose. Just three weeks later, there is a growing sense that he is doing just that. He has eight weeks to change course, but he has his work cut out for him.
[email protected] Twitter: @deverynross
