The March forecast looks much the same as the February one did - we're in for a lot of runoff this spring.
The Water Security Agency (WSA) released their March forecast on March 11, which includes an outlook on spring runoff. Based on the amount of snowfall this winter, the agency is still expecting an above-normal runoff for the majority of the province, with some areas showing the potential for very high runoff and flooding.
"The rate of melt and how much additional precipitation falls as snow or rain in coming weeks will determine the risk of flooding this spring," said Ken Cheveldayoff, Minister responsible for the WSA. "However, if the precipitation conditions going forward are consistent with their historical averages, most of the province will experience an above-average spring runoff."
Humboldt is located near the edge of an area expected to have well above-normal runoff this spring, with significant out of channel flow, according to the SWA map. Areas to the north are also expected to have well above-normal runoff.
According to the WSA, fall precipitation in the Carrot River basin - of which the areas north of Humboldt are included - during 2012 was normal, while the existing snowpack in the basin is generally above normal. Typical spring precipitation and rate of melt are expected to produce flows well above normal, rising the level of local lakes.
"Wakaw Lake was at the elevation of 509.47 m in November 2012 and with above-normal runoff is expected to rise by about 0.2 m," the report states. "Lenore Lake is expected to rise by about 0.5 m during spring runoff to a peak of about 527.5. This is about 0.3 m lower than the record peak level of 2011."
Areas to the south of Humboldt, including the Wynyard and Quill Lakes area, are expected to have just above normal runoff - a one in five year event, where "flows from snowmelt runoff will exceed natural channel capacity in some areas," the WSA noted.
However, this will mean a rise in the level of local lakes in that area. The Quill Lakes are expected to reach new record levels in 2013, surpassing record levels reached in 2011 and 1922.
Fishing Lake is also expected to rise, though not reach its record peak of 2011.
There are two parts of the province where widespread flooding is expected - a smaller area south of Prince Albert, around Rosthern and Duck Lake, and another larger area including Regina, Moose Jaw and Indian Head, extending south nearly to Weyburn.
The WSA will continue to monitor the 2013 spring runoff conditions across the province. If necessary, more snow surveys will be conducted to verify snow accumulation. The WSA will be updating this forecast in April with the best information available.
"We provide this forecast so that communities and residents can look at their local conditions and consider the best strategies to protect their property and infrastructure," said Cheveldayoff.
