The Saskatchewan Health Authority has released its updated pandemic modelling Tuesday, which pointed to the province being in a better position to deal with COVID-19.
The modelling presented Tuesday was a change from that on April 8, which had projected up to 400,000 COVID-19 cases in Saskatchewan. According to the news release from the province Tuesday, the latest information shows the province's Basic Reproductive Number for the virus is 3.12, representing the average number of people a single COVID-19 positive person in Saskatchewan would infect.
With the measures and restrictions that were introduced over the past couple of months the Effective Reproductive Number in Saskatchewan is now at 0.7 as of April 25, representing the average number of people one person is likely to infect.
The SHA says it is using the new Basic Reproductive Number to adjust its planning scenarios. Under the revised scenario using the basic reproductive number of 3.12, the SHA is planning for cumulative total cases of 254,756, for 190 hospital admissions a day, for 60 ICU admissions a day and for 403 patients requiring ventilation.
The scenario for the number of cases is way down from the upper range of 408,000 projected previously. Cumulative total deaths have been revised down to 3,050, down from 8,370 projected previously.
SHA also released updated information on the adjustments it is making to its COVID-19 Readiness Plan.
According to the SHA's news release, its “offensive strategy” adjustments include:
Maximizing testing capacity, accessibility and speed, including expansion of rapid testing capability across the province;
A contact tracing surge plan to stay ahead of demand, including meeting any scenario for up to 618 new cases per day in Saskatchewan;
Helping prevent the spread by restricting staff to working in a single facility;
Contingency plans to use hotels to cohort COVID-19-positive patients who require intermediate care;
Continuing to expand virtual care options.
Highlights of adjustments made to their “defensive strategy” include:
New planning scenario assumptions which estimate requiring 1,000 fewer hospital beds, 400 fewer ICU beds and 400 fewer ventilators than previously announced on April 8;
Continued preparation for field hospitals in Saskatoon and Regina if needed, based on two stages of activation: the first would see 309 beds while the second would add 341 more beds at those field hospitals.
The staged activation of COVID-19, non-COVID-19 and mixed hospitals continues to be part of the plan.
The SHA also states that they and the Ministry of Health are also developing a plan to resume, in a staged approach, community services, elective surgeries and diagnostics that were impacted by the earlier service slowdowns. This will be in phases in what is described as a cautious and methodical approach, and the system must remain able to respond to a COVID-19 surge in demand. More details expected in the near future.
