As farm operations turn to harvest, there are a plethora of factors that will determine whether this year's yield will rival 2013's record-breaking crops or whether they will dip through this fall. As always, weather is the unknown but all powerful decision maker.
Sherri Roberts, crop specialist for the Ministry of Agriculture in Weyburn, said in many cases right now the crops look good, but because of heavy rain in the southeast over the weekend, many producers can't get into the fields.
The weekend rains, ranging from 50 to 80 millimetres across various parts of the southeast, may keep farmers out of the fields for some time.
"Clay can take an awful lot of water. The thing is, it's going to keep them out of the fields for a while," said Roberts. "I was down in the Oxbow, Carnduff area last Thursday, and some of those field roads were so slick you wouldn't have even dared bring a piece of equipment into the field. That's going to delay things, but the actual crops themselves are looking pretty good."
Roberts said some farmers are expecting yields comparable to last year, but others have barely started.
"There are others, of course, who are looking at putting in a winter wheat crop because they ended up with not much of a chance to even get into the field. We kind of go from there," said Roberts about yield expectations over the harvest season. "A lot of them are optimistic, but now with this rain, it caused a lot of lodging that I've noticed, and it's gong to slow down harvest.
"If some of them had gone in and sprayed their desiccants, say, on their flax, then the longer they wait to get into that field, the flax matures and they could lose a lot of it. The pods are going to open up and they're just going to lose it, the same with some of that canola."
She noted many producers have their crops down, maturing in the swaths, while others may be looking at dealing with issues drying the crops.
"Hopefully, by the time this really gets underway, some of the rail issues get remedied here so that they aren't sitting on an awful lot," Roberts said, noting she has seen a lot of bins on the roads and expects farmers to prepare to store a lot of crop.
Storing crops when they are wet also complicates the process after the crops have left the field. Moisture testing will have to be done carefully as crops are coming out of the field.
"If they have to take it off at a higher rate because of their scheduling and the timing, then they're going to have to look at turning those dryers on and really keeping an eye on it, otherwise they're going to lose it.
"Last year, I know a lot of people just didn't have the grain storage capacity, so a lot of grain went on the ground," Roberts said. She knows a farmer last year who lost a large pile he had covered, so having a plan for where to put grain once it's off the field is of the utmost importance.
"Last year, a lot of people learned some sad lessons."
Another issue is an F-word Roberts is wary of in August, but frost, she noted, is a potential concern with the cool overnight temperatures of late.
"I'm looking at the weather forecast, and I'm seeing Weyburn will be four degrees tonight. If I'm in a low-lying area, I'm going to be out looking at my field tomorrow morning," said Roberts during an interview on Monday.
She added that the fusarium fungus has been an issue, particularly with peas. That should be a consideration for farmers when it comes to crop rotations.
"We've had quite a bit of fusarium in the peas this year, and people do want to look at that for their crop rotations. They should look at what other crops are susceptible to fusarium and make sure they don't blend those because their problem is not specific to peas," said Roberts, who advised against producers rotating in crops only because it was what has been planted in the past. "You might have to think outside the box a little bit here with some of the diseases we've seen this year."
While forecasting and recording is an ongoing process, Roberts noted it's important to remember how much can change from week to week, and with co-operating weather, things can get better very quickly.
"What happens one week to the next can make a big difference," she noted with a laugh.
