There can be no denying that COVID-19 has had a tremendous impact on global and local markets. While the true extent of the pandemic’s effects will not be known for some time, we can begin to get an idea of how markets are being affected. In Saskatchewan, the first presumptive case of COVID-19 appeared on March 12, and the province declared a state of emergency on March 18.
In a media release sent out by Jason Yochim, the Chief Executive Officer of the Saskatchewan REALTORS® Association, they compared sales and sales volume figures from last year to the time since the state of emergency was declared. They determined there was a 6.2 per cent drop in total sales and a 9.6 per cent drop in total sales volume, but none of this decline affected the residential market.
In fact, the number of residential sales in the province was unchanged while total sales volume increased 5.6 per cent. While reports have suggested that real estate markets in countries hit with COVID-19 have seen the total number of transactions decline significantly, the Saskatchewan real estate market hasn’t been negatively impacted as of April 3. However, what data exist suggests that it takes time for transaction volumes to fall, and as the environment continues to change and markets react to new policy measures, we should expect to see impacts emerge in the future.
The media release detailed specifically how each of the major cities and rural areas in Saskatchewan were/are being affected.
For southeast Saskatchewan they compared sales, sales volume, number of new listings and so forth to how they were on March 20, 2019 to how they were on March 30, 2020.
Sales in southeast Saskatchewan was up 50 per cent, which is up 7.1 per cent from the five-year average. Although the total number of sales fell 25 per cent in Weyburn, (down from 8 to 6), this was offset by a 400 per cent increase in Estevan, with sales going from 1 to 5. Year-to-Date (YTD) sales in the overall region were up 44.1 per cent, going from 59 to 85, with YTD sales in Weyburn falling from 21 to 20, but rising from 10 to 23 in Estevan.
Sales volume in the region increased 33.5 per cent, going from $3.7M to $5M in 2020, but 15.1 per cent below the five-year average of $5.8M. Sales volume in Weyburn fell 50.7% ($2.3M to $1.1M) while it increased 485.7 per cent in Estevan ($0.1M to $0.9M). YTD sales volume increased 26.3 per cent from $11.9M to $15M, with Weyburn seeing a fall of 14 per cent and Estevan seeing a 70.6 per cent rise in sales volume.
The number of new listings in southeast Saskatchewan fell 20.3 per cent, going from 133 to 106, which is 8.5% below the five-year average, but consistent with the 10-year average. The number of new listings in Weyburn was down from 37 to 22, while in Estevan, new listings increased modestly, from 31 to 34. Active listings were down across the region at 6.1 per cent in the region as a whole (821 to 771), 14.3 per cent in Weyburn (189 to 162), and 21.5 per cent in Estevan (200 to 157).
The sales to listing ratio was 28.3 per cent in the region, 27.3 per cent in Weyburn, and 14.7 per cent in Estevan, suggesting that market conditions favour buyers at the moment.
In March, homes stayed on the market an average of 132 days in the region, which is down 15.9 per cent from 2019, but 5.8 per cent above the five-year average of 125 days. Weyburn saw a significant drop of 46.1% from last year’s 165 days meaning homes stayed on the market an average 89 days. Estevan homes on the other hand stayed on the market an average of 121 days.
Average home prices in the region fell 11 per cent, going from $185,445 to $164,080, or 19.5 per cent lower than the five-year average. In Weyburn, average home prices were down 34.3 per cent, going from $282,625 to $185,750, while in Estevan, prices increased 17 per cent, up to $172,000 from $147,000.
