They agree on most fronts and have contrasting forecasts in a few areas of concern, but, a couple of national weather forecasters were willing to provide a long-range weather prediction for Canada’s western region.
AccuWeather and The Weather Network issued fall forecasts with only slight variances on the predictions.
AccuWeather’s Global Weather Center, said warm and generally dry weather will continue to dominate across Western Canada into the fall, bringing little relief to areas dealing with drought and high wildfire dangers.
Warm afternoons but chilly nights were predicted for Ontario and Quebec heading into October.
Warm and unusually dry conditions have persisted during the 2015 growing season from southwestern B.C. to Alberta due in part to abnormally warm water over the northeastern Pacific and a stubborn high pressure system anchored along the West Coast.
This type of pattern is expected to be the dominant one into the fall, which will lead to a continuation of warmer and drier conditions as Pacific storms and Arctic fronts are detoured away from the region. Expect a higher-than-usual number of days in excess of 30 degrees Celsius away from the coast, even into early October.
The 2015-16 ski and snowboard season, will likely get off to a late start across the higher elevations of Western Canada due to lack of late-autumn snow and sustained cold, said AccuWeather.
In the late fall, the El Nino effect will take hold as it will intensify over the equatorial Pacific. “We expect this current episode to be one of the strongest El Ninos on record by the upcoming winter,” said AccuWeather’s forecasters. “The main impacts for Canada from this El Nino should be felt from late fall through winter across Canada”
Strong El Ninos typically produce unusually mild winters across the west while further east their impacts become less certain, but tend to favour reduced snowfall around the Great Lakes. Current indications are this upcoming winter will not be nearly as cold as last winter across Eastern Canada.
Over at The Weather Network, their fall forecast for September, October and November along with their winter preview gives Canadians an idea of what they predict is coming down the proverbial weather pipeline.
“Overall, most Canadian will see summer weather linger well into September before a cold snap will give an early taste of winter,” they said.
“Fall is transition season where we typically see a rollercoaster of temperatures as we descend toward winter. This year, Canadians should expect more prolonged periods than usual in which temperatures are either above or below normal,” said Chris Scott, chief meteorologist at The Weather Network. “Above-seasonal temperatures will dominate central and eastern parts of the country in September, but a switch will flip sometime in October,
bringing cold temperatures and a false start to winter. By contrast, Western Canada will hold onto milder weather longer into the fall, resulting in above-normal temperatures for the season as a whole.”
They, too, had a good look at the strengthening El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean that was on track “to be one of the top three strongest events since 1950.”
