At the Feb. 24 council meeting, planningAlliance and Catterall & Wright presented the conclusion of phase 3 of the growth planning study the City of Humboldt has been undertaking these past few months.
In the previous issue of the Journal, Peter Bergquist, director of planning and engineering for the City, said the conclusions that this team of planning agencies draws will be the foundation for a high-level document.
"We're trying to determine what is realistic growth for Humboldt," Bergquist said.
The team was asked to develop options for growth and development in the city as it unfolds in the next 20 years, and recommend a preferred direction of this growth to the City.
"There's expected to be 10 million tonnes of potash to be developed in this area over the next 50 years," said Jason Petrunia of planningAlliance, referring to the population influx Humboldt is expected to see.
Even in the next decade, Humboldt's population is expected to grow by 3,000 residents, since experts are forecasting that the booming manufacturing sector will create an additional 1,450 jobs by 2023.
Adding to that, Petrunia referenced a PIER report which estimated that approximately 44 per cent of job creation from the mine, both PotashCorp and BHP Billition's project in Jansen, will end up in Humboldt.
"Well, we propose to increase that job catcher to 75 per cent, as development tends to agglomerate in locations that have services," Petrunia explained.
The report estimated that 20 years from now, 11,200 people will be living in Humboldt (the current population is just under 6,000) but with planningAlliance and Catterall & Wright's objective of widening the job creation market, the adjusted high scenario is a population of 15,600 in 2033.
That means an additional 9,922 people will be moving out to Humboldt over the next 20 years.
"With increased growth comes increased demand for land" Petrunia said, touching on the fact that out of the 9,922 proposed new residents, over 300 of them would be accommodated for with things like approved development. The remaining 6,208 of that bunch would be moving into what is currently the greenfields surrounding the city.
And that is where the agencies began hypothesizing growth options for Humboldt; where is the best area of direction to expand in order to accommodate this burgeoning population?
The two planning agencies collaborated and proposed four scenarios to the City of Humboldt, the most feasible option being to expand southwest.
"From a servicing perspective, this is the most feasible by far," Petrunia told council in his presentation. "It unlocks development potential to the south and is easy access to the proposed bypass."
The bypass Petrunia was referring to is still years away from being implemented, said the Saskatchewan Department of Highways and Transportation, but if approved, would divert heavy traffic from Highway 5 and redirect it around the outskirts of the city.
It's a project that is still in its infancy, as it's currently being studied.
The other three options, from concentric growth to one idea, which would see southwest and northwest expansion, aren't economical, said Petrunia, as regulation states that drainage must flow to the south. Due to significant flooding in the northern part of the region in recent years, there is a moratorium on drainage of any kind in the RM of Humboldt.
The city of Humboldt is at the bottom edge of the Lake Lenore basin area, where the moratorium is in effect, so any development in that region cannot drain into the northern system and instead, must be re-routed into the southern area, through the Lanigan Delwood watershed system.
"This would be hugely expensive," said Ryan Rogal of Catterall & Wright. "We don't see it as a preferential option."
When asked by Coun. Rob Muench if the moratorium could ever be lifted, Rogal answered that it's not going away any time soon.
Rogal also added there's already committed development in the north, so expanding to the south as well is ideal.
In the end, the two planning firms recommended the southwest direction as the best area for Humboldt to expand upon.
The next night, on Feb. 25 during the Humboldt Broncos' game, planningAlliance and Catterall & Wright set up an open house for the public to come learn more about the growth study.
With diagrams on display and the four options' pros and cons explained, the public was able to gain a better understanding of the study and give feedback as well.
"People need to understand this isn't out of nowhere," Petrunia said at the council meeting. "This planning has been taking place for quite some time."
