For over a decade, Moose Mountain Ag Day-held March 3 at Arcola's Prairie Place Hall- has endeavored to provide trending and timely information for farmers and ranchers in southeastern Saskatchewan.
This year, the annual event hosted producers, businesses, and eight experts who addressed topics from the use of social media to the upcoming season's prairie weather forecast.
Kansas-based meteorologist, Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. specializes in predicting weather patterns as they affect agriculture. “This year, in this part of Saskatchewan, the problem (for the 2015 growing season) is not the weather; it's the moisture already in the ground.”
“I'm either going to depress you or make you happy,” joked Lerner. “Last year in this area, I didn't expect it to be as wet as it was. I'm so sorry you guys have been up against this for the past several years.”
“This year, the problem won't be the weather. There will probably be below-average storm systems, but what will bring the moisture profile back to saturation will be the moisture that is already in the soil.”
“We need it to be dry long enough for the soil to firm up,” continued Lerner. “You're blessed in the sense of not having a lot of deep snow out there right now. There's a drier bias this year and it won't be an excessively hot summer. There are short-term wetter biases early in the season, but it will be progressively drying across our region throughout the summer. If you can get over the spring hump and get through the planting season, then I have a lot of hope here for this particular season.”
“You guys have been beat up too many times and you deserve a break.”
Lerner, who has 35 years of forecasting experience, specializes in providing short-and long-range forecasts that specialize in how weather influences agriculture. He has clients in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Australia, and India, and says, “Nature tends to counter-balance herself. We're getting to the point where we are long overdue for a correction.”
To prepare his forecasts, Lerner refers to a variety of data and more than one method of calculation. During his talk, he referred to the Palmer Drought Severity Index, which is an index of the relative wetness or dryness of areas with water-sensitive economies, as well as the 18-year cycle, which uses the historical jet stream pattern of an area, in addition to mapping El Nino.
“These two weather patterns-the 18-year-cycle and El Nino-will create a certain spring on the prairies,” says Lerner. “There will be periods of drier bias conditions and periods of rain over 60 days through the April/May spring season. There will be periods of precipitation, but it will be average periodically.”
“You're still going to have rain, but it's not going to be the large-volume storms that we've had. With all this moisture in the ground, it's already saturated. With one big storm, there could be standing water, but overall, it's encouraging.”
“For the summer season-from June through August-the temperature bias will be slightly warmer, but there will definitely be some shots of cool air. The cool air will go back and forth with warmer air all through the planting season,” Lerner added. “But there will be below-average precipitation.”
Worldwide, Lerner stated that Russia is currently facing “the potential of losing a lot of crop. They're worried about a winterkill issue and within the next four weeks, we should know. If there's potential for winterkill, commodity prices rise.”
“It's also a potential issue in parts of the U.S, but it's far less significant,” added Lerner. “The potential damage in Russia will be significant, if it occurs.”
Lerner also said that three provinces in northeastern China experienced drought during the summer of 2014. “These areas grow corn, soybeans, spring wheat, and sugar beets. If the dryness expands, this could have the most potential to influence world markets and prices.”
“I think things are cooling to he extent, that we're looking at a shorter growing season, because of a cool atmosphere in general,” he added. “Just keep that in the back of your minds.”
“Bottom line for you guys this year, is that it will be a better year. There are still potential problems with the possibility of pooling water here, but once you're over that hump, things will be much better than they've been.”
David Pattyson of the Upper Souris Watershed Association (USWA) Wetland Restoration Program also addressed the issue of water and the importance of working with nature, rather than against it, telling attendees, “There are several benefits of wetlands restoration. Wetlands act as a natural filter against pesticides, fertlizers, and natural fertilizers, among other benefits. Wetland is simply land restored to its natural state.”
Citing a personal example, Pattyson recalled the removal of a few trees from his acreage last year. “By just removing a few trees from my yard changed how snow piles in my yard.”
“Just a few small changes in the landscape can actually make an impact,” he added. “Through the wetlands restoration, producers can put (land) back to where it once was. There are benefits to the reclamation process, and funding is available.”
“We also work to ensure that neighbours are unaffected.”
Etienne Soulodre and Neil Hodges from the Water Security Agency also cited the importance of water-related issues for the agriculture industry.
“This is all part of a long conversation,” said Soulodre. “But it's ultimately about the people side of stuff. Generally, when sloughs are drained, grain farmers gain money, and cattle farmers lose money. Taking current realities into account, we have to think about the economics of this stuff.”
Souloudre and Hodges have worked together on reclamation projects throughout the province and their presentation contained several slides of successful wetland recoveries.
“There are benefits,” said Souludre. “But we have to use a reasonable, win-win approach and remember that there's a people side in this and recognize there's a middle road.”
Dr. Jeff Schoenau of the University of Saskatchewan discussed phosphorus management, calling the mineral “the energy currency of life.”
“If you can't replace it fast enough, you need fertilizer.”
Schoenau offered alternatives to fertilizer, including crop rotations, the use of perennial legumes, and long-term no-till.
“Generally, phosphorus increased when a crop was grown on a legume stubble, rather than a non-legume stubble.”
“But soil health is not easy to measure,” he added. “It's a benefit, folks, but not an easy thing to measure.”
Kevin Elmy of Friendly Acres Seed Farm in Saltcoats also discussed the benefits of crop rotation, specifically referring to ranch land.
“When you're deciding which cover crop to use, you need to know why you're doing it,” said Elmy. “You need to have goals and whether you're using it for green feed, silage or grazing, that will affect what you should use as a cover crop.”
Calling radishes “ The rock star of the cover crops in the U.S.,” Elmy's presentation also featured slides demonstrating the effectiveness of other cover crops, such as kale, sugar beets, and crimson clover.
Jodie Griffin, program coordinator for Saskatchewan Crop Insurance presented an overview of the Western Livestock Price Insurance Program (WLPIP) and focused on 2015's calf program.
“It's all about managing risk,” she said. “Long-term planning is critical, even though prices are good right now.”
Sandy Russell of Spring Creek Consulting called 2014 “a phenomenal year” for cattle producers. “We had record highs and it was a perfect storm for producers.”
“However, although the good news story for the cattle market in 2014 and 2015 is demand,” said Russell, “We have to remember that this business is a cyclical one and as Canadian producers, we have to keep in mind that overall, the cattle markets are driven by what happens in the U.S., and we just have to accept that.”
Due to the size of the much larger U.S. cattle industry and its effect on Canadian producers, Russell urged local cattle producers to try non-traditional ways of marketing their products, in addition to the “traditional trip to the auction mart .”
“We're now in the information age,” she said. “We've shifted from an industrial age to an information age.”
“That includes the cattle industry. Information is at our fingertips-yours, mine, and the consumers'. So in addition to marketing, we can use social media as a tool to address issues within our industry and to communicate with our customers.”
Blake Brownridge of Arcola's Ridgeline Ag Services echoed that sentiment from his booth at the trade show, saying, “(Moose Mountain Ag Day) is a good chance to interact and network with our customers so we can learn more about what they need from us and we can also let them know what we have to offer.”
One of the event's organizers, Lorne Klein from the Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture summed up the day by saying, “We're certainly encouraged by today's attendance. This event has been consistently well-attended and we're encouraged to put it on again next year.”
