While Estevan has been on a healthy growth schedule the past four years, city administration and developers have never received any requests for land to be put aside for schools. There has been green space set aside in most projects for parks, but nothing for schools.
The two school divisions that serve the cities of Estevan and Weyburn have been well informed of pending and current developments, but so far neither one has indicated the need to have land set aside for new school construction or major expansions.
But that is not to say the South East Cornerstone School Division isn't interested in development plans and how the two cities are growing.
To that end, the Cornerstone board invited Estevan's land development services manager, Rob Denys, to their table on Jan. 16 to discuss the Energy City's growth and future property developments. Denys' Weyburn counterpart, Martino Verhaeghe, director of planning and development, also spoke with trustees about that city's present and future growth patterns.
In opening the discussion, Cornerstone's director of education, Marc Casavant, said the trustees could benefit from knowing how many new housing units were going up in each centre and how that may translate into new students attending schools in each area of the cities.
Denys opened his presentation by showing the trustees the general population growth in Estevan since 1972. The average growth over this total time span has been 1.2 per cent per year while in the past five years, the population growth has been three per cent, or an additional 2,000 people with a total increase in population of 17 per cent.
"It is estimated that Estevan's daytime population is now between 15,000 and 16,000," said Denys. The current 'live in" population is now over 13,000.
If the trend continues, Estevan's population could reach 15,000 to 17,000 rather rapidly, he suggested.
Speaking about new citizens in the age five to 19 grouping, Denys said there are 2,360 people who would be considered students, in Estevan. He said that age grouping took up 23 per cent of the total population in 2003 and it's just 18 per cent now. He said the population over the age of 65 is lower in Estevan compared with the provincial average.
Denys said there were 167 new housing units built in 2012 and there would be another 100 or more in the final report for 2013 and that number will likely rise to about 237 on average by 2025. He said there will be a minimum of 70 new units every year moving forward. The faster construction pace began in 2009, Denys noted.
"There is still some pent up demand for all types of housing units," Denys said.
The main growth area in Estevan so far has been on the north side and it has increased to the point that there might be the need to annex more land this year.
A modular home park on the south side of Estevan may also impact school attendance areas, he said.
Denys noted that a mixed residential area in Dominion Heights involving 110 acres has now completed its first phase of development.
Over the brief but intense construction period, Denys said there have been 663 new household units built and there will be around 719 more within the next five years.
"We have not received any requests for reserved land for a school," Denys said. But he agreed with some trustees who know the Estevan situation, there is room for possible expansion or new building at or around Pleasantdale School, to accommodate future public school needs on the north side.
In the Trojan subdivision, closer to the centre of the city, Denys said the property managers and construction teams are completing the last phase of a new development. All these are single family homes with the exception of one multi-family unit for a total of 93 new units. These are families who would generally be sending their students to Spruce Ridge School, another school located in the north side of the city.
The Ridge development plan on the south side, featuring modular homes that will be popular for young families, will see most of their youngsters heading to Hillcrest School. Denys said there will be a total of 460 units built there eventually with 80 units going up in the first phase slated for this year. He said 90 per cent of those early units have already pre-sold, so there will be a lot of young families located in the city's valley area, which is being developed in concert with a residential plan in the RM of Estevan.
The Meadows, another new mixed unit plan by a private company, is finally getting underway with a city services agreement now in place. Denys said a start on this development, also on the city's north side, is expected this year and it will evolve over the next four years. This will include some multi-family dwellings with maybe 60 family units in the first phase and up to 1,300 units in total by the time it is completed.
Denys added that it is well documented that if a school is requested in a development area, it is usually well received since a school's presence increases nearby property values.
In summarizing his presentation, Denys said Estevan should experience steady to heavy growth periods over the next 10 to 12 years and the markets will ultimately decide how many housing units will be built. With the current rate of healthy immigration there will be an expected increase in young families, especially once the rental property squeeze is addressed. He said the situation appears to be easing up lately on that front, but it has been a deterrent for population and business growth. To keep abreast of the demand, Estevan could be building 200 new housing units per year.
During his presentation, Verhaeghe said Weyburn has enjoyed a slight advantage on the construction front for the past couple of years, due to Estevan's tight rental market. He agreed with Denys that businesses can't grow if the people who are going to be employed by them can't find housing, or can't afford what is there. He added that Weyburn's cost per square foot on the construction front has given them a significant advantage compared with Estevan.
"Our vacancy rate in Weyburn is pretty tight too, but at least we can offer them something," he said, noting that Weyburn's population could increase to 22,000 by 2030 if current growth rates of about two per cent a year, continue. He later admitted that was a pretty optimistic estimate that was based on heavy growth patterns staying intact.
Verhaeghe pointed out there has been little or no overbuilding in either centre. No units are being built on speculation, it's all been on demand and therefore no residential units are being over evaluated by housing speculators.
Like Estevan, Weyburn has several district developments underway and have had them under development for the past four years. He said 2013 was the slowest year in recent history in terms of residential buildings with 104 units going up, but that could climb to about 200 in the current year.
Weyburn trustee Len Williams, said he could recall a couple of decades back when a building permit report showing just three or four units being built per year as being a pretty typical situation, so having over 100 and considering it to be a lagging year, is still pretty impressive.
"We've had builders give us 100 to 180 new doors for the past four years," said Verhaeghe. With four or five residential areas under development, the Weyburn growth pattern appears to be as ambitious as Estevan's.
The trustees noted that with the older Haig School on seven acres of land, soon to close, there will be reserve land available for possible expansion if required in that area of the city.
In thanking the two city planning and development managers for their input, Cornerstone board chairman Harold Laich noted that "it's important for us to keep an eye on the future, this is vital information."
