With last night's series win over Kindersley, the Estevan Bruins now move on to the Sherwood Conference semis to meet the first-place Yorkton Terriers. Here's a look at the series.
I'll start with the interview I did with Terriers head coach Trent Cassan this afternoon. You can also tune in to episode 24 of The Beef Bar Bruins Banter TV tomorrow to listen to Keith Cassidy tee up the series.
Here's a look at the two teams by the numbers this season:
Record:
Yorkton - 36-14-1-3, 76 points, 1st in Sherwood
Estevan - 21-29-4-0, 46 points, 5th in Sherwood
Head-to-head record:
Yorkton - 4-2
Estevan - 2-3-1
Goal differential:
Yorkton - +48
Estevan - -38
Home record:
Yorkton - 25-1-0-1
Estevan - 15-9-3
Road record:
Yorkton - 11-13-1-2
Estevan - 6-20-1-0
Power play:
Yorkton - 20.9% (3rd)
Estevan - 12.6% (12th)
Penalty kill:
Yorkton - 84.4% (5th)
Estevan - 83.0% (7th)
Penalty minutes:
Yorkton: 1147 (2nd)
Estevan: 885 (10th)
Overtime record (not including shootouts):
Yorkton - 4-1
Estevan - 1-4
Starting goaltender:
Yorkton - Dawson McAuley (16-6-1, 2.14 GAA, .921 SP)
Estevan - Curtis Martinu (16-29, 3.35 GAA, .893 SP)
Top scorers:
Yorkton - Nathan Murray (14-28-42), Jeremy Johnson (28-13-41), Patrick Martens (23-18-41), Tyler Giebel (22-16-38), Kailum Gervais (13-25-38).
Estevan - Cole Olson (16-24-40), Hudson Morrison (21-15-36), Tyler Paslawski (10-18-28), Tanner Froese (13-14-27), Dylan Smith (16-10-26 in 19 games).
Analysis:
Forwards
Yorkton doesn't have any big stars, but they have a very deep offensive cast, which has been their trademark the last few years. With eight players scoring 30 points or more, they can run at least three scoring lines and there's always someone who can step up when someone goes down or has a slump. Nathan Murray raised his game hugely this year, leading the team with 42 points. Johnson, Martens and Giebel all topped the 20-goal mark, and I think Giebel can produce more than he did in the regular season. That also goes for Tayler Thompson, who had 30 points. Gervais, 17, is also an exciting young player. The Terriers will start the series without Zak Majkowski (37 points) and Derek Falloon (29), according to a report in Yorkton This Week.
Estevan has a different forward group now than they did at the start of the season. Three of their top performers - Dylan Smith, Calder Neufeld and Alex Cote - weren't here for most of the year. Smith has often dominated since his return at the deadline, with 26 points in 19 games, plus three more against the Klippers. Neufeld has returned to playing regular shifts in the last month, and he played two great games in Kindersley with seven points, helping the Bruins take a 2-0 series lead. Cote has also been a point-per-game player since coming over in December. Morrison has done nothing but impress all year, Olson's energy and hard work are constants, and players like DeRoose, Froese, Paslawski and Reich are all capable of improving on what they did in the regular season. The Bruins will have to do without concussed winger Matt Brykaliuk, which is too bad, because he was playing well lately.
Defence
The T-Dogs have one of the best bluelines in the SJHL, and a lot of that has to do with the emergence of twin brothers Brady and Chase Norrish. They both put up good numbers this year and have evolved into strong all-around guys. Captain Devon McMullen can take care of business, and the additions of Austin Bourhis and John Neibrandt from the WHL were huge, adding talent and depth to the back end.
The Bruins' back end is built around second-year bruiser Tyler Kauk, who is invaluable as a workhorse who can get it done at both ends. Brett Blatz and Leighton McLachlan were both strong mid-season additions. Rookie stay-at-homer David Robertson is extremely capable as a shutdown guy, and rookie Zach Douglas has been impressive. Captain Connor Milligan and Nick Egan round out the group with a focus on their own end.
Goaltending
Yorkton has two strong options in Dawson McAuley and Kale Thomson. Cassan indicated that McAuley, with his hot play after Christmas, will be the starter. That said, Thomson is more than capable of stepping in if needed.
Curtis Martinu has been a real workhorse for the Bruins, playing the most minutes of any SJHL goalie and facing the third-most shots at 31.4 per 60 minutes. He did have a few shaky outings down the stretch, and he was overworked. However, he looked good for the most part against Kindersley.
Special Teams
As you can see by the numbers above, the Dogs have the edge on both the PP and PK. The Bruins' power play was simply awful this year, after being the league's top PP in 2011-12 (although it operated at a 41.7 per cent rate against the Klippers). Their penalty kill is decent, but nothing to shout about.
Synopsis
The Terriers are the clear favourites, as they should be. For all the attention Humboldt has received, the Terriers were one point behind them for first overall. It's a team built on the concept of depth, so they don't have to rely on one line to provide all the scoring. Despite the Bruins playing well offensively lately and creating chances, Yorkton's blueline will present a real challenge for Estevan's forwards.
The Bruins' chances of success ride entirely on their ability to raise their game to a level we haven't seen this year. They need players who struggled in the regular season to step up. They need to continue the strong defensive play they showed against Kindersley. They might also need Martinu to steal a game or two, something that, despite his strong play most of the year, he hasn't done much of.
I'm not going to make any predictions, except that I think this series will go at least six games. I think it'll be a good one.
